What’s the difference between 15/0, 30/15 and 40/30? Essentially nothing…

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Big Three since the start of the 2015 season up to Roland Garros at these three scorelines identifies that the percentage chance of holding serve varies only by about one percentage point.

You would naturally think there would be a significant increase in holding from 40/30 over 15/0, but it’s simply not the case. The following breakdown for Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer shows a consistent trend with all three point scores.

Percentage Point Range Between 15/0, 30/15 and 40/30
Novak Djokovic = 1.1 percentage point
Roger Federer = 1.0 percentage point
Rafael Nadal = 1.0 percentage point

No. 1 Novak Djokovic / 2015-2019 Holding Serve From Three Point Scores

Djokovic had the highest percentage chance of holding serve of the three point scores at 40/30 (93.1%). You would think being just one point from closing the game would significantly increase his chance of holding serve from a 15/0 position, but the gap between the two is just 0.7 percentage points.

No. 2 Rafael Nadal / 2015-2019 Holding Serve From Three Point Scores

Nadal also held serve the most when leading 40/30, 93.2 per cent (955/1024) of the time. All three of Nadal’s win percentages fall within a one percentage point range, between 92.2 per cent and 93.2 per cent.

World No. 3 Roger Federer / 2015-2019 Holding Serve From Three Point Scores

Federer had the highest win percentages for the Big Three at all three point scores. Surprisingly, Federer had a slightly better chance of holding serve at 15/0 (2183/2278) than he did at either of the other two point scores.

When you drill down into statistics, you often find things can be quite different than you realise. In this case, the change you think is there doesn’t exist at all.

Rohan Bopanna/Denis Shapovalov pulled off the upset of the day on Wednesday at the MercedesCup in Stuttgart. The Indian-Canadian pairing knocked out third seeds Bob Bryan/Mike Bryan 6-4, 3-6, 10-6 to make the quarter-finals of the ATP 250 event.

The Bryans, who have won 118 doubles titles across 35 different tournaments, were seeking their first MercedesCup title. Bopanna/Shapovalov will next face French wild cards Lucas Pouille/Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

In other action, top seeds John Peers/Bruno Soares advanced in straight sets against Denys Molchanov/Artem Sitak 6-3, 7-6(5) to make the semi-finals. Brits Luke Bambridge/Jonny O’Mara also advanced, beating the Italian-Hungarian pairing of Matteo Berrettini/Marton Fucsovics 3-6, 6-3, 10-3. The Brits will next face Aussies Nick Kyrgios/Matt Reid.

At the Libema Open, in the lone doubles match of the day, fourth seeds Rajeev Ram/Joe Salisbury beat Dutchmen Sander Arends/Matwe Middelkoop 5-7, 7-6(4), 10-5 and will next meet Alex de Minaur/David Vega Hernandez.

In as much time as it takes to read this story, Daniil Medvedev won a service game on Wednesday at the MercedesCup in Stuttgart.

The Russian, down 6-7(6), 6-4, 1-5 against Frenchman Lucas Pouille, hit four consecutive aces. The game lasted 29 seconds.

After each ace, Medvedev did not towel off or walk to the back wall to inspect the balls.

Instead, he simply received another ball, turned to Pouille, bounced the ball a couple times and crushed another ace. Less than half of a minute later, he was walking to the chair and raising his racquet as the crowd cheered for one of the fastest service games in recent memory.

Last year at the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati, Aussie Nick Kyrgios recorded a 37-second service game.

Pouille, however, advanced in Stuttgart 7-6(6), 4-6, 6-2 and will next face German Jan-Lennard Struff, who beat #NextGenATP Serbian Miomir Kecmanovic 6-2, 6-2. Pouille is going for his second Stuttgart title after winning the grass-court crown in 2017.

There are commencement speakers, and then there are commencement speakers.

The 29 students who graduated from the Rafa Nadal Academy by Movistar on Wednesday afternoon were treated to words of wisdom from two Spanish tennis legends as Rafael Nadal and recently retired David Ferrer spoke to the graduating class, the academy’s third.

Nadal, who won his record-extending 12^thRoland Garros title on Sunday, told the students to surround themselves with the right people. The Spaniard leaned on his inner circle as he recovered from injury to recently win a record-setting 34^th ATP Masters 1000 title in Rome and yet another Roland Garros crown. 

“First thing that I want to do is say congratulations to these 29 students who graduate today. I am not a big fan [of giving] advice, but the only thing that I want to tell you is try to be around good people. That’s the most important thing,” Nadal said.

“When you are around good people, life is happier, life is easier, and for sure you become a better person when you have the right people around you.”

Watch Rafa’s Full Speech To The Graduates

Ferrer, who retired at the Mutua Madrid Open last month, also spoke at the ceremony, which was attended by family, friends and school staff and took place in the centre court of the academy. The students attended the academy’s school, the American International School of Mallorca.

Nadal is next scheduled to compete at Wimbledon, which begins 1 July. The Spaniard is a two-time champion (2008, 2010) at the grass-court Grand Slam, and will be looking to maintain his place atop the ATP Race To London.

See Who’s Chasing Nadal In The ATP Race To London

Watch Ferrer’s Full Speech To The Graduates

Second seed Borna Coric started his grass-court season with a comeback win on Wednesday at the Libema Open in ‘s-Hertogenbosch. The reigning NOVENTI OPEN champion in Halle (d. Federer) beat American Taylor Fritz 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 to make the quarter-finals of the ATP 250 event.

Coric, who fell in the third round at Roland Garros (l. to Struff), eventually made inroads on Fritz’s serve after the American won all 12 of his first-service points in the opening set. In the final two sets, Coric, who didn’t earn a break point in the opener, converted all three break points he saw. The 22-year-old will next meet seventh seed Cristian Garin or home favourite Robin Haase. Their second-round match was postponed until Thursday because of rain with Garin leading 7-5, 2-3.

Third seed Alex de Minaur won his second match in the past four months, beating Italian Andreas Seppi 7-5, 6-3. De Minaur has struggled with a hip injury and is 2-5 since March.

The 2019 Next Gen ATP Finals runner-up will next meet countryman Jordan Thompson, who upset sixth-seeded #NextGenATP American Frances Tiafoe 6-3, 6-2. Thompson was 1-11 at tour-level in 2018, but is already 16-11 this season and is into his fourth tour-level quarter-final of the year.

Milos Raonic scraped past Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-4, 6-7(5), 7-6(1) in two hours and 27 minutes on Wednesday for a place in the MercedesCup quarter-finals.

The sixth seed and last year’s runner-up, who hit 24 aces, won four straight points from 0/30 at 5-5 in the deciding set and improved to a 5-2 record against Tsonga in their FedEx ATP Head2Head series. The Canadian won seven points from 0/1 in the final tie-break.

“I knew it was going to be tough, so I feel very lucky to have a chance to play another match,” said Raonic, who is returning to the ATP Tour after recovering from a right knee injury. “My serve helped me out a lot and the goal is to win as many games and matches as I can.”

View Stuttgart Singles & Doubles Draws

Raonic, who also beat Australian qualifier Alexei Popyrin in a third set tie-break on Tuesday, is now 43-19 lifetime on grass, which includes three runner-up finishes (2016 Fever-Tree Championships, Wimbledon; 2018 Stuttgart).

He will next challenge Hungary’s Marton Fucsovics, who saved three match points to edge out fourth-seeded Georgian Nikoloz Basilashvili 7-6(4), 2-6, 7-5 in two hours and 15 minutes. Fucsovics saved three match points when serving at 4-5 in the deciding set, then won nine of the next 12 points.

Later in the day, Germany’s Jan-Lennard Struff fired 15 aces in a 6-2, 6-2 win over Miomir Kecmanovic of Serbia in 59 minutes. Struff entered the week at a career-high No. 38 in the ATP Rankings following a Round of 16 run at Roland Garros (l. to Djokovic).

Struff will next meet French wild card and 2017 champion Lucas Pouille, who knocked out No. 3 seed Daniil Medvedev 7-6(6), 4-6, 6-2 in just over two hours to improve to a perfect 4-0 FedEx ATP Head2Head record against the Russian. Medvedev fired 19 aces – including four in a 29-second game – to three for Pouille, but the Frenchman converted on three of his 12 break point opportunities while saving four of the six faced on serve. 

Wednesday’s play got underway at 2:30 p.m. local time, three-and-a-half hours after the original start time, due to rain.