When Points Go Long, It’s Advantage Nadal & Federer
A rally begins, and it gets longer, and longer, and longer.
What you are seeing is not so much dominance building by one player over the other, but rather the exact opposite – a leveling out of each player’s fortunes as the length of the rally rises.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of extended rallies of 9+ shots from the year-end Top 10 in the 2019 season uncovers that this elite group combined to win just 52.5 per cent of total points in this specific rally length. The data set is from ATP Masters 1000 events in 2019 on Hawk-Eye courts.
The Top 10 leader was Rafael Nadal, who won a commanding 58 per cent of extended rallies in the 9+ rally length. The Spaniard was the only Top 10 player to cross the 55 per cent threshold.
What’s interesting is that Roger Federer, typically known for wanting to finish points quickly, came in second place, winning 54.5 per cent of points in extended rallies of nine shots or more. Few would have guessed that the Swiss placed higher up this list than his arch-rival, Novak Djokovic, who came in sixth place, winning 53.7 per cent (538/1002) of extended rallies.
The three players who all won in the 54 per cent range were Roberto Bautista Agut (54.4%), Gael Monfils (54.1%) and Matteo Berrettini (54.0%).
Daniil Medvedev had a breakthrough season in 2019, winning ATP Masters 1000 events in Cincinnati and Shanghai, but still only managed to win just 52.7 per cent of rallies of 9 shots or more. The three players in the data set who were below the Top 10 average were Dominic Thiem (51.5%), Alexander Zverev (49.7%) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (45.6%).
Reaching the elite status of being a Top 10 player in the FedEx ATP Rankings is based on developing a variety of strengths in your game. Creating a slight edge in longer rallies is just one of them.
2019 Top 10: Points Won In 9+ Rallies At ATP Masters 1000 On Hawk-Eye Courts
| Player | 9+ Points Won |
9+ Points Total |
Win % |
| Rafael Nadal | 348 | 600 | 58.0% |
| Roger Federer | 403 | 739 | 54.5% |
| Roberto Bautista Agut | 436 | 801 | 54.4% |
| Gael Monfils | 486 | 898 | 54.1% |
| Matteo Berrettini | 238 | 441 | 54.0% |
| Novak Djokovic | 538 | 1002 | 53.7% |
| Daniil Medvedev | 648 | 1230 | 52.7% |
| Dominic Thiem | 318 | 617 | 51.5% |
| Alexander Zverev | 444 | 893 | 49.7% |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 466 | 1023 | 45.6% |
| AVERAGE | 4325 | 8244 | 52.5% |