Top 10 Wins Don't Come Easy
Top 10 Wins Don't Come Easy
You check the draw. Who do you play in the first round?
Your heart skips a beat when you see your opponent is ranked in the Top 10 in the Emirates ATP Rankings. It’s equal parts opportunity and fear. What a great win it could be, but how likely are you to actually get the W?
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Top 10 ranked players show that on average they win three out of every four matches they play. They are dominant, but they also do lose matches just like the rest of us.
The current Top 10 players have won 75 per cent (370/496) of their matches so far this season, which is exactly the same win percentage for the Top 10 in the 2016 year-end Emirates ATP Rankings.
Top 10 as of 11 September 2017: Match Win Percentage
|
Ranking |
Player |
Matches Won |
Matches Lost |
Total |
Win Percentage |
|
1 |
Rafael Nadal |
56 |
9 |
65 |
86% |
|
2 |
Roger Federer |
39 |
4 |
43 |
91% |
|
3 |
Andy Murray |
25 |
10 |
35 |
71% |
|
4 |
Alexander Zverev |
47 |
15 |
62 |
76% |
|
5 |
Marin Cilic |
31 |
15 |
46 |
67% |
|
6 |
Novak Djokovic |
32 |
8 |
40 |
80% |
|
7 |
Dominic Thiem |
44 |
20 |
64 |
69% |
|
8 |
Stan Wawrinka |
26 |
11 |
37 |
70% |
|
9 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
35 |
15 |
50 |
70% |
|
10 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
35 |
19 |
54 |
65% |
|
– |
TOTAL / AVERAGE |
370 |
126 |
496 |
75% |
Roger Federer has the highest match win percentage this season, winning 91 per cent of the time. The only other two players at 80 per cent or higher are Rafael Nadal (86 per cent) and Novak Djokovic (80 per cent).
Emirates ATP Race To Milan leader, Alexander Zverev, is the only other player above the Top 10 average, having won 76 per cent of his matches in 2017.
The next best include Andy Murray (71 per cent), Stan Wawrinka (70 per cent), Grigor Dimitrov (70 per cent), Dominic Thiem (69 per cent), Marin Cilic (67 per cent), and Pablo Carreno Busta (65 per cent).
Players at all levels of the game are often intimidated by facing highly-ranked opponents. Sometimes the match is over before it even begins as the possibility of victory seems too daunting.
Competing against a Top 10 opponent can also have the completely opposite effect, releasing pressure since the expectation of victory is so low. We all seem to play better against somebody who is better than us, primarily because the pressure to win isn’t overwhelming.
Over the years, some players have managed to find another gear against Top 10 opponents, elevating their performance against the best of the best. They are able to rise to the moment and perform at a higher level on the biggest stage. The following table highlights players who are career leaders in specific categories against only Top 10 ranked opponents.
Career Leader vs. only Top 10 Opponents
|
Category |
Career Leader |
Win Percentage |
|
First-Serve Points Won |
Goran Ivanisevic |
82.4% |
|
Second-Serve Points Won |
Pablo Cuevas |
54.5% |
|
Service Games Won |
Ivo Karlovic |
90.8% |
|
First-Serve Return Points Won |
Rafael Nadal |
31.8% |
|
Second-Serve Return Points Won |
Alberto Berasategui |
54.8% |
|
Return Games Won |
Rafael Nadal |
27.3% |
|
Break Points Converted |
Felix Mantilla |
44.3% |
|
Break Points Saved |
Ivo Karlovic |
71.2% |
|
Tiebreaks Won |
Thomas Muster |
69.2% |
|
Average Aces / Match |
Ivo Karlovic |
19.5 |
Year-End No. 1
Of all the players that finished year-end No. 1 from 1991 to 2016, Roger Federer and Lleyton Hewitt performed best against Top 10 opponents, according to the Infosys ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS Serve, Return and Under Pressure Ratings.
Year-End No. 1 Leader versus Top 10 Opponents
-
Best Serve Rating (297.3) = Roger Federer, 2004 season
-
Best Return Rating (178.8) = Lleyton Hewitt, 2001 season
-
Best Break Points Saved (79.1%) = Roger Federer, 2004 season
-
Best Break Points Converted (51.4%) = Lleyton Hewitt, 2001 season
Defeating a Top 10 player first starts in the mind. Do you see the match with trepidation or opportunity? They will lose one out of every four matches they play. That one may as well be against you.
For more information, visit ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS