The One Stat That Pushed Medvedev To Cincy Title, US Open Final

Converting break points at an unprecedented rate was the beating heart of Daniil Medvedev’s sensational North American hard-court summer swing.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the 23-year-old Russian, who won 20 of 23 matches in his past four tournaments, identifies that his biggest statistical jump in Washington, Montreal, Cincinnati and New York compared to the rest of his 2019 season was when he got a look at a break point.

Break Points Won
40.2% = Medvedev 2019 Prior To Washington
45.7% = ATP Career Leader (Guillermo Coria)
49.4% = 2019 Tour Leader (Novak Djokovic)
52.4% = Medvedev Four North American Tournaments

Medvedev spectacularly jumped from converting 40.2 per cent (148/368) of break points from Brisbane in January to before Washington in late July, to converting 52.4 per cent (89/170) during the North American summer hard-court season.

Those metrics are superior to the 2019 break points converted leader, Novak Djokovic, and the career break points converted leader, Guillermo Coria, whose career-high ATP Ranking was No. 3 in 2004.

Medvedev’s best break points converted win percentage was at the Western & Southern Open (63%) in Cincinnati, where he won 17 of 27 break points en route to his maiden ATP Masters 1000 title. He dropped only one set for the tournament, which was to World No. 1 Djokovic.

Medvedev 2019 North American Hard-Court Swing: Break Points Won
63% (17/27) = Cincinnati
60% (12/20 = Washington
55% (22/40) = Montreal
45.8% ( 38/83) = US Open

It was in the important moments where Medvedev improved this summer rather than in his overall body of work serving and returning.

Medvedev Total Return Points Won
40.5% (1414/3492) won to Washington
40.8% (735/1800) won four North American tournaments

Medvedev Total Serve Points Won
65.4% (2143/3279) won to Washington
69.1% (1196/1732) won four North American tournaments

Medvedev is currently ranked fourth on Tour on the ATP Return LEADERBOARD, powered by Infosys Nia Data, with a 158.0 rating, and 21^st on the ATP Serve LEADERBOARD, powered by Infosys Nia Data, with a 277.0 rating.

See Who Medvedev Is Chasing On The ATP Return LEADERBOARD

Surprisingly, Medvedev’s points won returning first and second serves for the start of the season compared to the North American summer moved only a little, with his return points won against first serves actually declining a little.

Medvedev First-Serve Return Points Won
31.6% (681/2152) won to Washington
30.6% (332/1086) won four North American tournaments

Medvedev Second-Serve Return Points Won
54.7% (733/1340) won to Washington
56.4% (403/714) won four North American tournaments

In the US Open final against Rafael Nadal, Medvedev created 15 break points, but was able to break only five times (33%), including once out of five times (25%) in the deciding fifth set. Just one of those points could have been a difference maker to the final outcome.