The 2016 battle for No. 1 finished in a sprint, with Andy Murray winning 24 consecutive matches and five consecutive titles to edge Novak Djokovic. The 2017 season also featured a two-man race, as Rafael Nadal beat out Roger Federer to finish atop the Emirates ATP Rankings for the fourth time, and, at 31, become the oldest year-end No. 1.

But the 2018 battle for the top spot hardly looks as if it will be a mano-a-mano contest. Rather, next year’s fight for No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings looks as wide open as any in recent memory. The seven men who could finish on top:

1) No. 1 Rafael Nadal

Nadal could very well back his 2017 and finish atop the Emirates ATP Rankings for a fifth time. Spoiler alert: The Spaniard will again likely pick up thousands of Emirates ATP Rankings points on the European red clay. He will be going for his 11^th title at each of the following tournaments: Monte-Carlo, Barcelona and at Roland Garros. Not to be overlooked, though, Nadal’s game on hard courts in 2017 was as good as anyone’s. The Spaniard won two of his six titles on the surface, including his third US Open crown, which was his 16^th Grand Slam trophy.

But can Nadal’s body – namely his left wrist and his right knee – withstand another full season on the ATP World Tour? He’s already pulled out of the Brisbane International presented by Suncorp because he needs more time to recuperate from his right-knee injury, which forced him to participate in but eventually withdraw from the final two tournaments of 2017 – the Rolex Paris Masters and the Nitto ATP Finals.

2) No. 2 Roger Federer

It’s hard to imagine Federer, who will turn 37 in August, having a better season in 2018 than he did in 2017. To refresh: He played in 12 tournaments and won seven of them, including two Grand Slams – the Australian Open and Wimbledon – and three ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events – the BNP Paribas Open, Miami Open presented by Itau and the Shanghai Rolex Masters. Before 2017, Federer hadn’t won a Grand Slam in five years – the last coming at 2012 Wimbledon – and he hadn’t captured a Masters 1000 since August 2015 (Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati).

Federer’s masterful managing of his 2017 schedule was one of the keys to his success – he played in only 12 tournaments, and did so after a six-month break in 2016. Before the 2018 season, however, the Swiss right-hander will have only a six-week break. How will his back and left knee hold up with such little time to recover after his 2017?

3) No. 3 Grigor Dimitrov

Say what you want about Dimitrov before 2017, but the Bulgarian officially arrived as a Top 5 player this season. He won his maiden Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati and backed it up by going unbeaten in his debut at the Nitto ATP Finals to win the biggest title of his life. On paper, he is a clear contender to compete for the year-end No. 1 spot in 2018. Dimitrov finished 2017 at No. 3 in the year-end Emirates ATP Rankings, a career high.

But he’s never been in this position before, having to defend so many Emirates ATP Rankings points and having to back up a Top 5 season. How will he respond? Then again, Dimitrov had never played in the season-ending finale in London before, either, and he had no trouble finishing his year on a perfect note at The O2.

4) No. 4 Alexander Zverev

The Grand Slam fanatics will point to his record in Slams, something Zverev has been reminded of often. The 20-year-old has never made it past the fourth round of a Grand Slam, and he’s reached that stage only once, at 2017 Wimbledon. But look no further than his record in finals as a potential rebuttal: In 2017, Zverev was 5-1 in title matches, and two of those wins came against two of the best players in the world.

Zverev beat Novak Djokovic to win his first Masters 1000 title at the the Internazionali BNL d’Italia in Rome, and the 6’6” German defeated Federer to win his second Masters 1000 crown at the Coupe Rogers in Montreal. Surely, as Zverev bulks up in the off-season and gains more experience in five-set matches, his success at all tournaments, including Grand Slams, will come.

5) No. 9 Stan Wawrinka

Climbing to No. 1 is one of the bullet points missing from Wawrinka’s Hall of Fame resume, which includes three Grand Slam titles and a Masters 1000 trophy (2014 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters, d. Federer). Wawrinka was No. 3 before he had to end his season after an early Wimbledon exit (knee injury).

Wawrinka and coach Magnus Norman have split, but the 32-year-old Swiss still has someone else very important on his side: Pierre Paganini, the trainer he shares with Roger Federer. Paganini guided Federer during his delicate recovery and comeback in 2017, and he’ll try to do the same with Wawrinka next season.

 
6) No. 12 Novak Djokovic

The top Emirates ATP Ranking spot was Djokovic’s home for 223 weeks, including four year-end No. 1 finishes (2011-12, 2014-15). And Djokovic was there as recently as 31 October 2016, before Murray took over the top place at the Rolex Paris Masters.

But the 30-year-old Serbian hasn’t played a match since retiring against Tomas Berdych in the quarter-finals of The Championships, Wimbledon, and just how well is his right elbow, which forced him to miss the second half of the 2017 season and had bothered him for 18 months?

Do not, however, underestimate two things about Djokovic’s comeback: He has had six months to rest his mind and body, a tactic that seemed to work out well for Federer, and Djokovic appears to have his team set. After splitting with long-time coach Marian Vajda in May 2017, Djokovic has brought on former World No. 1 Andre Agassi and the recently-retired Radek Stepanek.

7) No. 16 Andy Murray

The Scot surely would have preferred a more fruitful stay at No. 1. Murray, who ascended to the top place in November 2016, fell from No. 1 in August after eight months of not playing his best tennis. In 2016, Murray finished 78-9, including his 24-match win streak to end the year. In his injury-shortened 2017, the Brit went 25-10, calling it a campaign because of his lingering hip injury after a Wimbledon quarter-final loss to American Sam Querrey.

But if Murray is healthy, why not expect the Brit to once again beat the very best in men’s tennis? In 2017, neither Federer nor Nadal matched Murray’s 24-match win streak, and the three-time Grand Slam champion and 14-time Masters 1000 titlist relishes facing a doubting audience.

It’s official. One of the greatest players of all-time has found a way to become even greater.

Roger Federer put up better serve numbers in 2017 than he has at any other time in his illustrious career. We thought the glory days of Federer existed primarily between 2003-2007, when he amassed 49 tour-level titles, and seemed from another world. But along came seven titles in 2017, and the Renaissance of Roger stunned us all.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Federer’s combined first and second serve win percentages shows this season has no peer in those categories. This year, the Swiss won 79.7 per cent (2181/2734) of his first-serve points to be ranked fourth best on tour in this specific category. Federer failed to hit the 80 per cent mark from 1991-2014 with first serve points won, but he has now done it for three consecutive years.

Federer won 59.4 per cent (989/1664) of his second serve points in 2017, finishing second to Rafael Nadal, who won 61.2 per cent. Federer’s best winning season with this specific metric was 2012, when he won 60 per cent of his second serve points.

When you combine Federer’s first and second serve points won in a single season from 1999 to the present, 2017 sits at the top of the mountain. The Swiss right-hander also finished second on tour with service games won in 2017, at 91.3 per cent (684/749), slightly edged by John Isner, who won 92.9 per cent (747/804).

In many ways, Federer’s body of work in 2017 surpassed milestones that he established over a decade ago. Father Time has clearly yet to catch up to Federer, who at 36 years of age, is playing a smart schedule to maximise his prodigious talents and extend his career.

If you think you missed Federer at his peak, think again.

Roger Federer 1999-2017: 1st & 2nd Serve Points Won / Combined Total

Grigor Dimitrov has tightened his grip on his own destiny.

Imagine the server holding a tennis ball in his hand, and the returner trying to rip it free. That’s essentially what happens at the crucible moment of break point in a tennis match. The server still possesses the ball, but the returner is just one strong pull away from owning the moment.

It’s a battle of determination and nerves as much as strategy, and Dimitrov has vastly improved in saving break points this season compared to the rest of his career.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Dimitrov’s performance at break point in 2017 compared all the way back to the 2011 season, when he first broke into the Top 100, identifies improved maturity, strength and resolve that has powered him to a career best No. 3 in the Emirates ATP Rankings.

Dimitrov: Break Points Saved 2011-2017

Dimitrov saved a career-best 70 per cent (252/360) of break points in 2017, which was 10 percentage points better than 2016. It was also fourth best on tour this year in this critical category. One big reason for the improvement was Dimitrov put more first serves in play when facing break point.

2017 Averages

• Overall 1st serve percentage = 63% (3183/5034)

• 1st serve percentage facing break point = 66% (237/360)

Dimitrov performed slightly better making first serves in the deuce court down 15/40 than he did in the Ad court at 0/40, 30/40 and all the Ad Out points combined.

1st Serve Percentage Down Break Point

• Deuce court = 74% (58/78)

• Ad court = 63% (179/282)

In the Ad court, where 82 per cent of his break points were contested in 2017, he preferred to serve wide the most, which also delivered the highest win percentage out of the three locations.

Dimitrov: 2017 1st Serve Facing Break Point / Ad Court

In the deuce court, where only 18 per cent of his break points were contested, every time the Bulgarian served down the T, he saved the break point (9/9), which was far superior to the 55 per cent (11/20) he won serving down the T in the Ad court.

Dimitrov: 2017 1st Serve Facing Break Point / Deuce Court

Dimitrov’s steely resolve helped him reach new heights in 2017. If he continues on this trajectory, he may be set to push even higher.

Rafael Nadal has been forced to withdraw from the first ATP World Tour tournament of 2018, the Brisbane International presented by Suncorp, which starts 31 December. The Spaniard announced on social media that he’s still not fit to play after participating but eventually pulling out of the final two tournaments of the 2017 season – the Rolex Paris Masters and the Nitto ATP Finals – because of a right knee injury. 

“I am sorry to announce I won’t be coming to Brisbane this year. My intention was to play but I am still not ready after last year’s long season and the late start of my preparation,” Nadal said.

The 31-year-old finished No. 1 in the 2017 year-end Emirates ATP Rankings for the fourth time, winning six titles, including two ATP World Tour Masters 1000 crowns – the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters and the Mutua Madrid Open – and two Grand Slams, his 10th Roland Garros and his third US Open.

Nadal was planning on making his second appearance in Brisbane after reaching the quarter-finals on debut in 2017 (l. to Raonic). “I had a great time there and it was a great start to the month I spent in Australia,” he said.

The Spaniard still plans to play the season’s first Grand Slam, the Australian Open, which he won in 2009 and has reached the final of three times – 2012, 2014, and 2017. “I will be seeing my Aussie fans when I land on the fourth in Melbourne and start there my preparation for the Australian Open,” he said.

I am sorry to announce I won’t be coming to Brisbane this year. My intention was to play but I am still not ready after last year’s long season and the late start of my preparation.
I had a great time there and it was a great start to the month I spent in Australia

— Rafa Nadal (@RafaelNadal) December 27, 2017