Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: First Points Matter
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: First Points Matter
Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers looks at why it pays to win the first point when returning
It’s amazing how just one point can put a player in a big hole.
You need four points to win a game, but the first one greatly impacts the landscape for everything that follows. When returning, winning the first point of your opponent’s service game puts you in the conversation to breaking. Losing it makes it a lot tougher to break than we ever thought.
At the 2015 US Open, returners averaged breaking serve 21 per cent (924/4326) of the time. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis pinpoints the substantial percentage swings for returners when they win or lose the opening point of the game.
The following analysis takes a cross section of the current Emirates ATP Top 100 rankings from the 2016 season, providing a broad statistical analysis. One player from each 10 ranking spots is included, highlighting the diversity of playing styles and win percentages throughout the Top 100.
Percentage Chance Of Breaking Serve By Point Score
|
Ranking |
Player |
0-0 |
15-0 |
0-15 |
|
1 |
Novak Djokovic |
35% |
25% |
48% |
|
11 |
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga |
21% |
13% |
31% |
|
21 |
Steve Johnson |
19% |
11% |
26% |
|
31 |
Sam Querrey |
16% |
8% |
35% |
|
41 |
Nicholas Mahut |
20% |
11% |
35% |
|
51 |
Guido Pella |
21% |
14% |
31% |
|
61 |
Gastao Elias |
28% |
13% |
48% |
|
71 |
Damir Dzumhur |
29% |
18% |
46% |
|
81 |
John Millman |
23% |
16% |
30% |
|
91 |
Gerald Melzer |
21% |
10% |
49% |
|
– |
AVERAGE |
23% |
14% |
38% |
The Top 100 cross section includes players known for their serving prowess as well as solid returners. On average, winning the first point of the game substantially increased the chance of winning the game from 23 per cent to 38 per cent.
Losing the opening point – just one point – dropped the average breaking serve percentage from 23 per cent to 14 per cent. That effectively means the returner went from around a one-in-four chance of breaking to a one-in-seven chance.
So what should the returner’s strategy be at love-all to improve their chance of winning the opening point? Here’s five things to consider.
1. Make The Return.
It seems obvious, but consider that 32% of all serves were unreturned at the 2015 US Open. Getting the serve back in play is an absolute must to start the game.
2. Target = Middle.
Take the singles sidelines out of the equation. Aim right at the server and make him have to move sideways to get out of the way of the return.
3. Depth Matters
Even if the return is slower, it helps immensely if it is hit deep in the court to neutralize the serve. Make it land closer to the baseline than the service line.
4. Blocking Energy
The return is a different animal than a groundstroke. Bigger backswings need to be abbreviated. Use the server’s power back against him. Shorter swings equal cleaner contact.
5. Feet First
Attack with the feet first and the racquet second. Step, split step, adjust, and lean on the ball. Good balance comes from small steps to get the right spacing.
Having a good game plan and an understanding of the math involved goes a long way to breaking serve and climbing the rankings at all levels of the game.