Five Thoughts On The Wimbledon Draw
The 2016 Wimbledon draw is out. For the full draw click here.
Serena Williams faces familiar foes: World No.1 and defending champion Serena Williams leads the top half of the draw, which will get underway on Tuesday. On the whole the top half of the draw features a tougher selection of seeds compared to the bottom half of the draw, with No.3 Agnieszka Radwanska, Petra Kvitova, and Belinda Bencic, and Timea Bacsinszky, as well as two dangerous lower seeds in CoCo Vandeweghe and Kristina Mladenovic. Throw in an unseeded Caroline Wozniacki, who opens against No.13 seed Svetlana Kuznetsova, and it’s clear the top half is prime for some upsets.
As for Serena, she’ll likely see a slew of familiar opponents in the first week. She opens against a qualifier in the first round – she is 17-0 against qualifiers and lucky losers at the Slams – and then plays either Christina McHale or Daniela Hantuchova. Serena has played McHale twice in the last three months, and the younger American has played her tough.
Heather Watson, who was two points away from beating Serena here last year, or Kristina Mladenovic, who gave her a tough test last month at the French Open, could be looming in the third round, with Mladenovic being the more dangerous of the two. Get through that and she could be looking at a Round of 16 tussle with Kuznetsova, Sloane Stephens, or Wozniacki.
The upshot: These are not opponents Serena will be unfamiliar with or underestimate in the slightest. It might just be the draw she needs to stay focused in and charged up for the fortnight and she tries to chase down that record-tying 22nd major title.
Garbiñe Muguruza primed for another deep run: Aside from the tough task of playing the always dangerous and grass-loving Camila Giorgi in the first round, this is a good draw for the French Open champion. The earliest seed she could face is No.28 Lucie Safarova, who still trying to find her form, then either Samantha Stosur or Elina Svitolina, neither of whom are comfortable on grass.
Muguruza’s potential seeded quarterfinal opponents: Venus Williams, Carla Suárez Navarro, Jelena Jankovic, or Daria Kasatkina. That’s a very good look for the semifinals if Muguruza can manage Giorgi.
Agnieszka Radwanska put to the test: The second quarter of the draw is a tight one, packed with in-form lower-ranked players, and top players with question marks. Radwanska could face Mallorca Open champion Caroline Garcia, in a rematch of their second round match at the French Open. Her fourth round opponent could be one of Dominika Cibulkova, who defeated her today to reach the Aegon International final, Johanna Konta, who is also in the midst of a deep run in Eastbourne, or a dangerous non-seeded player like Monica Puig, Daria Gavrilova, or Eugenie Bouchard.
Also in Radwanska’s quarter is two-time champion Petra Kvitova, who opens against one of the toughest unseeded players in Sorana Cirstea. Birmingham finalist Barbora Strycova, Belinda Bencic, and Andrea Petkovic also loom. All that with the prospect of Serena in the semifinals. Not an easy task for Aga.
Angelique Kerber and Simona Halep lead an open third quarter: Who will make it out of the wide open third quarter? Halep didn’t play any grass court lead up events, with the Romanian withdrawing from Birmingham due to a left achilles injury. Kerber reached the quarterfinals of that very event, but lost a tough three-setter to Carla Suárez Navarro after an impact schedule saw her complete two matches in one day. With question marks swirling around the top seeds in this section, look for No.9 seed Madison Keys or No.15 seed Karolina Pliskova to take advantage.
First round matches to watch: The bottom half of the draw will play on Monday and the top half on Tuesday. Here are the matches we’re already highlighting:
Svetlana Kuznetsova vs. Caroline Wozniacki
Petra Kvitova vs. Sorana Cirstea
Garbiñe Muguruza vs. Camila Giorgi
Belinda Bencic vs. Tsvetana Pironkova
Laura Siegemund vs. Madison Keys
Karolina Pliskova vs. Yanina Wickmayer
Sabine Lisicki vs. Shelby Rogers
Lucie Safarova vs. Bethanie Mattek-Sands
Kiki Bertens vs. Jelena Ostapenko
Johanna Konta vs. Monica Puig
CoCo Vandeweghe vs. Kateryna Bondarenko
Dominika Cibulkova vs. Mirjana Lucic-Baroni
Nicole Gibbs vs. Kirsten Flipkens
Closing Thoughts:
– A Tale of Two Careers: In 2011, it was Laura Robson who defeated a then-unknown Angelique Kerber in the first round of Wimbledon. Five years on and the two face off again and Robson is attempting to reignite her injury-plagued career against the reigning Australian Open champion.
– Hot or Cold: Players who soared in Paris who might sputter in London? French Open semifinalist Kiki Bertens is a beast on clay but has only won one match ever at Wimbledon. Similarly, Stosur has always been a threat on clay but has still never made it past the third round at Wimbledon. French Open quarterfinalist Shelby Rogers has never won a main draw match at a grass tournament.
– Most vulnerable top seeds: No.6 seed Roberta Vinci and No.7 seed Belinda Bencic. Vinci opens against a solid grass player in Alison Riske and the Italian is mired in a slump. Since February she has not won three matches at a single tournament and is on a three-match losing streak. As for Bencic, she’s still on her way back from a lower back injury that ruled her out of the clay season and picked up a thigh injury in Birmingham. She’s a top-notch player on grass, but has a tricky opening opponent in Pironkova.
– Seeds going into Wimlbedon cold: Here’s who has not played a grass court match this year: Serena Williams, Simona Halep, Venus Williams, Sloane Stephens, and Kiki Bertens.
Listen to more Wimbledon thoughts in the latest episode of the WTA Insider Podcast, featuring Sport360.com’s Reem Abulleil:
All photos courtesy of Getty Images.
