A New Way To Evaluate First-Serve Performance

First-serve performance is split into two statistical categories: first serves made and first serves won. Would joining them together as one metric provide a better understanding of how well your first serve really performed?

An Infosys ATP Insights analysis of these two statistics identifies that they tell a good story in their own right, but a richer narrative emerges once they are blended together as one. For this hypothetical situation, let’s call the new metric First-Serve Rating.

Here’s why it’s a good idea. Take for example a first-round match from this year’s Erste Bank Open in Vienna, in which Jannik Sinner defeated Casper Ruud 7-6(2), 6-3. Below are their first-serve statistics.

Sinner
• First Serves Made = 56% (41/73)
• First Serves Won = 76% (31/41)

Ruud
• First Serves Made = 65% (49/75)
• First Serves Won = 65% (32/49)

So whose first serve outperformed the other?

At first glance, Ruud made 65 per cent to Sinner’s 56 per cent, so it was probably the Norwegian. But the Italian won 76 per cent to 65 per cent, which now muddies the water. The truth is that their first-serve performance was almost identical. You would never know it by looking at the two statistics separately, but it’s immediately recognisable once you combine them.

Here’s how it works. You start by taking the first-serve made percentage and simply turn it into a whole number (56% to 56). You then take the first-serve won percentage and turn it into a decimal (76% to 0.76), and then multiply the two to get a number out of 100.

Sinner
• 56% made / 76% won
• First-Serve Rating: 56 (made) x 0.76 (won) = 42.6

Ruud
• 65% made / 65% won
• First-Serve Rating: 65 (made) x 0.65 (won) = 42.3

Sinner’s rating of 42.6 narrowly edged Ruud’s rating of 42.3. They both actually did just fine behind their first serves in this match. What’s important to note is that the rating is mutually exclusive, meaning both players can perform well at the same time.

To understand the quality of the rating, the traditional grading scale of A to F is applied below to add clarification.

First-Serve Rating: Grading Scale

First-Serve Rating	Grade
60+	A++
55 – 59	A+
50 – 54	A
45 – 49	B+
40 – 44	B
35 – 39	C
30 – 34	D
30 & below	F

When Lorenzo Sonego defeated World No. 1, Novak Djokovic 6-2, 6-1 in the Vienna quarter-finals, his First-Serve Rating was 53.6, which translates to a solid grade of A. Djokovic could only muster a grade of D with a 33.6 rating, which was tied for the lowest rating of the tournament.

Sonego First-Serve Rating

• 67% made / 80 won
• First-Serve Rating: 67 x 0.80 = 53.6

Djokovic First-Serve Rating
• 55% made / 61% won
• First-Serve Rating: 55 x 0.61 = 33.6

Simple math blends two statistics that have always lived separately and turns them into a new rating that provides greater insight into the specifics of player performance. Below is a table containing all completed matches in Vienna last week. The average First-Serve Rating was a strong B+ at 46.1, which makes sense for an indoor event at altitude.

Only one player achieved the rare A++ First-Serve Rating during the tournament: Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Greek scored a 60.7 with his first-serve performance in his opening-round three-set victory against Jan-Lennard Struff. Interestingly, Struff’s first-serve performance was rated as a 48.2, which was a solid B+ effort.

Andrey Rublev, the tournament’s winner, scored an A+ (55.8) to defeat defending champion Dominic Thiem in the quarter-finals and an A+ (55.1) in defeating Norbert Gombos in his opening-round match. Rublev added a first-serve grade of A (52.2) in defeating Lorenzo Sonego in the final.

Making first serves is always a good start. Winning the vast majority of them is even better. This hypothetical First-Serve Rating factors in both.

2020 Erste Bank: First-Serve Rating

Player / Opponent	First In x First Won	First-Serve Rating	Grade
TSITSIPAS v Struff	74 x 0.82	60.7	A++
LAJOVIC v Sonego	72 x 0.78	56.2	A+
RUBLEV v Thiem	62 x 0.90	55.8	A+
DJOKOVIC v Coric	69 x 0.80	55.2	A+
POSPISIL v Medvedev	60 x 0.92	55.2	A+
RUBLEV v Gombos	68 x 0.81	55.1	A+
ANDERSON v Medvedev	66 x 0.83	54.8	A
DIMITROV v Tsitsipas	70 x 0.77	53.9	A
SONEGO v Djokovic	67 x 0.80	53.6	A
DIMITROV v Khachanov	64 x 0.82	52.5	A
RUBLEV v Sonego	60 x 0.87	52.2	A
AUGER-ALIASSIME v Pospisil	74 x 0.70	51.8	A
ANDERSON d Novak	61 x 0.84	51.2	A
SONEGO v Hurkacz	59 x 0.86	50.7	A
HURKACZ v Balazs	56 x 0.88	49.3	B+
DJOKOVIC v Krajinovic	64 x 0.76	48.6	B+
ANDERSON v Carreno Busta	54 x 0.90	48.6	B+
CORIC v Fritz	66 x 0.73	48.2	B+
STRUFF v Tsitsipas	61 x 0.79	48.2	B+
SONEGO v Evans	60 x 0.80	48.0	B+
SONEGO v Lajovic	58 x 0.82	47.6	B+
TSITSIPAS v Dimitrov	60 x 0.79	47.4	B+
GARIN v Wawrinka	63 x 0.74	46.6	B+
MEDVEDEV v Pospisil	57 x 0.81	46.2	B+
SHAPOVALOV v Rodionov	63 x 0.73	46.0	B+
HURKACZ v Sonego	58 x 0.79	45.8	B+
EVANS v Rodionov	60 x 0.76	45.6	B+
NOVAK v Anderson	65 x 0.70	45.5	B+
WAWRINKA v Garin	54 x 0.84	45.4	B+
FRITZ v Coric	60 x 0.75	45.0	B+
DIMITROV v Evans	70 x 0.64	44.8	B
CORIC v Djokovic	62 x 0.72	44.6	B
MEDVEDEV v Anderson	54 x 0.82	44.3	B
THIEM v Sachko	64 x 0.68	43.5	B
RODIONOV v Shapovalov	57 x 0.76	43.3	B
SINNER v Ruud	56 x 0.76	42.6	B
RUUD v Sinner	65 x 0.65	42.3	B
POSPISIL v Auger-Aliassime	51 x 0.83	42.3	B
JUNG v Medvedev	71 x 0.59	41.9	B
SONEGO v Rublev	62 x 0.66	40.9	B
EVANS v Dimitrov	52 x 0.77	40.0	B
SACHKO v Thiem	71 x 0.56	39.8	C
MEDVEDEV v Jung	51 x 0.77	39.3	C
Balasz v Hurkasz	55 x 0.65	37.8	C
EVANS v Sonego	55 x 0.68	37.4	C
THIEM v Rublev	43 x 0.82	35.3	C
KRAJINOVIC v Djokovic	58 x 0.60	34.8	D
CARRENO BUSTA v Anderson	59 x 0.57	33.6	D
RODIONOV v Evans	57 x 0.59	33.6	D
DJOKOVIC v Sonego	55 x 0.61	33.6	D
AVERAGE	–	46.1	B+

Source link