Insider Debates: Who Will Win In IW
David Kane, Point: Serena Williams’ 2015 return to the BNP Paribas Open was left incomplete when a knee injury forced her withdrawal from the semifinals of a tournament she hadn’t played in 14 years. But there were no such interruptions in her march towards a record-breaking third Indian Wells title on Friday as she battled past an inspired soon-to-be World No.2 Agnieszka Radwanska, 6-4, 7-6(1).
“Definitely didn’t think I would be in another final here ever,” she told press after the match. “Then last year was just really, really bad luck. I felt devastated that I wasn’t in the final or at least even able to play.
“After the last final I had here, I never pictured myself being back. So it’s an interesting feeling.”
It will most definitely be an interesting feeling for Serena as the final – her first at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden since 2001 – gets underway against former No.1 Victoria Azarenka. The two faced off three times in 2015, with all three going the distance, and Azarenka holding triple match point in their meeting at the Mutua Madrid Open. Though the Belarusian has only won three of their 20 matches, all three victories have come in finals – most recently in 2013 at the Western & Southern Open.
“Obviously me and Vika have had some incredible finals. We really get along great.”
Their off-court dynamic may contribute to some of the most entertaining matches over the last few years, but even at Azarenka’s best, Williams finds a way over the finish line.
“I think everyone is a rival, especially against me. They come out with a game I have never seen before. But it’s made me better.”
Take out their three 2015 epics and Azarenka’s 2015 season would truly be one to forget; the two-time Australian Open champion reached just one WTA final in Doha and failed to progress past the quarterfinals in any of the major tournaments – though it must be said that she played Serena in the third round of the French Open and in the last eight at Wimbledon. Her start to this season has been far more promising, but a stunning loss to eventual Australian Open champion Angelique Kerber was an undeniable clunker that may have exposed a tentativeness that has halted her progress as much any injury over the last two years.
The most memorable of Serena’s matches with Azarenka – certainly the last three – can be drawn down the middle: Azarenka begins with a fearlessness that appears to unsettle an American in the midst of a slow start. That is often enough to take her up a set and perhaps even a break in the second, but at crunch time, Serena’s superior mental strength shines through. It may not be a Grand Slam final, but for Serena, it may be something more.
“Hopefully it will be very different than last final,” she said with a smile. “But my goal is just to be out there, and I think it’s kind of cool that I can really close the door by being in the final again.
“So I think it’s something that really kind of came full circle.”
Courtney Nguyen, Counterpoint: How is it that a player with a 3-17 record against Serena Williams and who has not tallied a win in nearly three years, is considered the World No.1’s most potent rival? Because no one gets as consistently close as Azarenka. Asked what it is she does against Serena that no other player can, Azarenka kept it simple.
“I see a lot of them losing before they step on the court,” Azarenka said. “I’m not afraid of anybody. I want to have those challenges. Some people maybe want to avoid that and I live for those moments.”
Even in a sub-par 2015 season, Azarenka put herself in a winning position three times against Serena, holding match points in Madrid, leading by a set and 4-2 at the French Open, and another set at Wimbledon. She lost all three matches. Her last win over the No.1 came in the 2013 finals of Cincinnati, where Azarenka won 2-6, 6-2, 7-6(6).
“I had a lot of opportunities,” Azarenka said, recalling their three meetings last year. “I think Wimbledon was one of those matches where in the third set she really outplayed me and she was just on every ball, everything was going her way. But I did have opportunities. I won the first set, I had a few close games.
“For me to know there’s always a chance it’s always a good thing but I know I have to go a step more to be the winner in those.”
This is a different Azarenka in 2016, a Vika who is far closer to her 2012 level than her injury-prone 2014. Like Serena, she has lost just one match all season (15-1). Unlike Serena, she has a title under her belt after starting her season with her first title since 2013 at the Brisbane International. But Sunday’s final – which marks the ninth time these two have met in a final – is the biggest final Azarenka has contested since Cincinnati in 2013. A win would make her the first player to beat Serena four times in a final.
“There’s not going to be too many surprises but definitely need to step it up,” Azarenka said. “It’s going to be exciting for me because we haven’t played since Wimbledon. I feel like I’m in a little bit different position right now. For me it’s just really exciting to play the best player in the world right now. This is what I worked really hard for.”
If Azarenka wins the title she will vault back into the Top 10 for the first time since August 2014, moving to No.8 with a win. Azarenka will need to step up her game in all facets on Sunday. Despite her wins in the desert, her serve has been a liability at times. She has improved the speed and placement, but her accuracy has been fleeting. She’s hit 17 double-faults in her last two matches, seven of which came in her 6-0, 6-0 rout of Magdalena Rybarikova.
Listen to more thoughts from Kane and Nguyen on the BNP Paribas Open final and the nature of rivalries in the latest WTA Insider Podcast:
All photos courtesy of Getty Images.