World No. 1 Novak Djokovic captured a record fifth BNP Paribas Open crown in emphatic style on Sunday as he defeated Milos Raonic 6-2, 6-0 in the Indian Wells final.

Victory sees the Serb draw level with Rafael Nadal on 27 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 crowns and extends the ‘Big Four’ dominance at this level, with Djokovic, Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray having won 49 of the past 53 Masters 1000 tournaments.

The 28-year-old Djokovic has a 46-6 tournament record at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, winning the title in 2008, 2011 and then completing the three-peat between 2014-16. He also reached the final in 2007, finishing runner-up to Nadal.

Since battling past young American talent Bjorn Fratangelo in three sets in his opening second-round match, Djokovic has gone from strength to strength, not dropping a set as he raced to his 62nd tour-level title in the desert.

Raonic had come into the final having lost serve only four times in the tournament, but Djokovic swiftly announced his intent, breaking the Canadian twice as he surged into a 4-0 lead. Raonic stemmed the flow, but could not find a way back into the set as Djokovic wrapped up the opener in 43 minutes, having won more than half the points (52 per cent) on his opponent’s serve.

Raonic left the court for treatment after the first set, but could do nothing to halt Djokovic’s momentum in the second set. Indeed, the Canadian was punished for not winning any of his 14 second serve points as Djokovic broke three times to surge to victory in 88 minutes, having lost only three points on serve in the second set.

Djokovic captured his third title of the season, having opened his season with victory in Doha (d. Nadal) before lifting his 11th Grand Slam trophy at the Australian Open (d. Murray).

The Serb earns $1,028,300 in prize money and receives 1000 Emirates ATP Rankings points.

The 25-year-old Raonic had made an impressive return to action after being sidelined with an adductor injury through February. The right-hander was contesting his third ATP World Tour Masters 1000 final after becoming the first player outside the Top 10 to reach the Indian Wells final since John Isner in 2012.

After runner-up showings in Montreal in 2013 and Paris in 2014, Raonic was bidding to become the first player born in the 1990s to win a Masters 1000 trophy.

Raonic has a 14-2 record on the season, highlighted by winning his eighth ATP World Tour title in Brisbane (d. Federer) and reaching his second Grand Slam semifinal at the Australian Open (l. to Murray). By making the final, Raonic earns $501,815 in prize money and receives 600 Emirates ATP Rankings points. 

Risk and reward are hidden all over the scoreboard in tennis, with the scoreline of 30-all containing a healthy dose of both.

Every game has 18 different point combinations, from 0-15 to 40-30 to Ad-In. An Infosys ATP Beyond the Numbers study of the scoreline 30-all reveals there’s much more to this mid-game scoreline than meets the eye.

We analysed what happened when the Top 8 players – Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka, Rafael Nadal, Kei Nishikori, Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer – faced 30-all during the 2015 season and during the first two months of 2016.

To peel back the layers and understand the high-stakes consequences of 30-all, it’s important to understand three pivotal percentages. The first is the actual winning percentage for the server when the scoreline hits 30-all. The second is the server’s winning percentage at 40-30, and lastly, the server’s winning percentage at 30-40.

30-All Winning Percentage = 79 Per Cent

At love-all, the elite eight players have an 86 per cent chance of holding serve. Four points later at 30-30, that percentage drops slightly, to 79 per cent.

But that 79 per cent is just an average of the Top 8 players. Federer leads the group, holding 86 per cent of the time from 30-all. Nadal, though, holds only 71 percent of the time.

40-30 Winning Percentage = 93 Per Cent

If one of the Top 8 players wins the 30-all point while serving, their odds of winning that game shoot up to 93 per cent.

When Djokovic is in that position, he holds 97 per cent of the time, the highest percentage of the Top 8. Nishikori and Ferrer hold 91 per cent of the time, the lowest of the group.

These top of the tree competitors, the Top 8, all hold serve more than 90 per cent of the time when their games reach the dominant scorelines of 15-0, 30-0, 30-15, 40-0, 40-15 and 40-30.

30-40 Winning Percentage = 52 per cent

Losing the 30-all point basically creates a break-even scenario for the server. When that happens, the Top 8 win only 52 per cent of their service games. Tomas Berdych, 44 per cent, and Rafael Nadal, 45 per cent, were the only two players under 50 per cent, while Federer was again the clear leader at 58 per cent.

The Smart Strategy

To summarise, if a Top 8 player wins the 30-all point, he has a 93 per cent chance of holding. If he loses that crucial 30-all point, he has a 52 per cent chance of holding serve.

That substantial 41-percentage point swing dictates that, at 30-all, the server very much needs to make a first serve, keep control with a strong “Serve + 1” groundstroke, and look to force an error from his opponent. The player serving should not chase a lower-percentage winner or hope his opponent donates an unforced error.

Many different combinations exist, but a high-percentage first serve slicing out wide in the deuce court followed by a deep forehand to the open hole in the ad court could force the returner to hit a backhand on the run.

Continuing the forehand to backhand matchup, with an emphasis on depth and superior court position, would be an ideal fit for the high-risk stakes of 30-all.

Competitors at all levels of the game can copy and paste the patterns and percentages of the game’s elite players to successfully navigate the treacherous waters of 30-all.

The final tournament in a three-week run of ATP Challenger Tour events in China kicks off this week in Shenzhen, but No. 3 seed Daniel Gimeno-Traver and No. 4 seed Filip Krajinovic got to experience one of the most popular local sights before main draw play begins.

On Sunday, Gimeno-Traver and Krajinovic visited Wanshi Habitat, where the ancestors of Shenzhen citizens used to live. The two players learned about Hakka culture and what the lifestyle entailed, then delighted the local audience by hitting a few balls at the site. Both Gimeno-Traver and Krajinovic said they planned to come back and explore Wanshi Habitat again next year.

The top four seeds at this week’s Challenger in Shenzhen are all ranked inside the Top 100 of the Emirates ATP Rankings, with World No. 86 Taro Daniel earning billing as the top seed. Last week’s finalists in Guangzhou, Lukas Lacko and Nikoloz Basilashvili, will look to continue their strong form as the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds this week.

The BNP Paribas Open has a new men’s doubles champion.

Frenchmen Nicolas Mahut and Pierre-Hugues Herbert rolled past Canadian Vasek Pospisil and American Jack Sock 6-3 7-6(5) on Saturday to dethrone the defending champions and claim their first title in Indian Wells.

The win also gave Mahut and Herbert their third tour-level title. For Mahut, it’s already his second ATP World Tour doubles title of 2016; he partnered with Pospisil last month to win in Rotterdam.

“You guys are one of the most consistent teams throughout the year,” Sock said of Mahut and Herbert.

Mahut, who improved to 12-10 in doubles finals, and Herbert, now 4-3, also earned 1,000 Emirates ATP Doubles Ranking points and will split $336,920 in prize money.

They won the championship by taking the big points. The French duo earned the match’s only break in its fourth game to go up 3-1. The pairings stayed on serve the remainder of the set. Mahut and Herbert did face two break points while serving at 4-2, but they erased both and held. An Herbert overhead that hit Sock on the bounce gave the Frenchmen the first set.

“We knew from the beginning that we needed to be playing our game 100 per cent, be aggressive, and not let them play, so that’s what we did,” Herbert said.

The teams traded holds during the second set, forcing the tie-break. During the Frenchmen’s first championship point, a strong return to Sock’s feet from Herbert forced the American to sail it long.

“We were lucky to be able to play on this big court for the final against guys who won last year,” Mahut said. “We like big challenges.”

Mahut and Herbert also were more opportunistic with their first serves. The pairing landed 72 per cent of them, compared to 62 per cent for their opponents. Sock and Pospisil also were 0-5 on break points.

Mahut and Herbert became the first French pairing to win the Indian Wells title since Arnaud Clement and Sebastien Grosjean in 2004 (d. W. Black/Ullyett). “We’re going to be happy to come back next year,” Herbert said.

A lot went wrong for Novak Djokovic in the opening set against Rafael Nadal in their semi-final at the BNP Paribas Open Saturday, but one key strategy managed to flourish, and ultimately carry the World No. 1 to a 7-6(5) 6-2 victory.

The first set counted for everything in this match, as it has proven to be in their storied rivalry, with Djokovic owning a 20-3 record when winning the opening set, and Nadal almost identical at 20-4.

But Djokovic was floundering in the opening stanza, committing a head-turning 21 unforced errors to Nadal’s 16, along with 10 forehand return errors, and nine backhand return errors. The court temporarily not big enough for the World No. 1.

Djokovic immediately fell behind 0-2 courtesy of back-to-back double faults, and Nadal looked a real threat. But there was one ray of light, one very specific strategy that was instrumental in ultimately winning the opening set – outstanding success serving to the Spaniard’s backhand.

Overall in Set 1, Djokovic won 75 per cent (12/16) of first serves to Nadal’s backhand, and 80 per cent (4/5) on second serves. It was the perfect rescue plan when the rest of his game was out to sea.

Deuce Court – Wide Slider

There was no place Djokovic targeted more in the opening set with his first serve than a wide, slicing delivery in the deuce court.

He attempted 12, made 10, and won eight behind his first serve. Of the eight, three first serves were unreturned, and Djokovic hit five aggressive “Serve +1” forehands to ramp up the pressure and make Nadal run hard from well outside the deuce court alley to begin the point.

It speaks volumes to the amazing success of the tactic that Nadal was not able to make Djokovic hit a single backhand groundstroke as his first shot after the serve from this return location.

At 5-6, 15-15, with the pressure metre rising rapidly, Djokovic sliced his first serve out wide and hit two forehands and a backhand from a dominant court position right around the baseline. The Serb finished with an inside-in forehand winner from around the singles line in the ad court.

The forehand gets the credit for winning the point, but the wide slice serve was what really put him in the driver’s seat.

Leading 4-2 in the tie-break, Djokovic hit another wide slider for a let, then went straight back to the same location, procuring an easy Serve +1 run-around forehand winner from around the service line in the ad court.

At 5-5 in the ‘breaker, Djokovic went back to the same basic play, and Nadal split step the wrong way to the middle, missing a stretching wide backhand return long. It was a pivotal moment to stop Nadal’s three-point win streak from 2-5 in the tie-break.

Second Serves to the Backhand

Djokovic also went wide to the Nadal backhand in the deuce court with four second serves in the opening set, winning every one.

In Set 1, Djokovic committed three double faults, Nadal won 3/3 returning Djokovic’s second serve with a forehand return, but only 1/5 with a backhand return.

The four second serves that Djokovic won to Nadal’s backhand return were all sliced very wide to the Spaniard’s backhand in the deuce court at key moments.

The first was with Djokovic serving at 1-2, 30/30, then at 4-5, love -all, and deuce. The last one was at 5-6, 40/15 to send Djokovic into a tie-break.

Saving Set Point

Djokovic was down set point at 4-5, 30/40, and nailed a 118mph first serve down the middle in the ad court to Nadal’s backhand return. Djokovic then thumped two forehands from the middle of the court, with the second forcing a running forehand error from Nadal wide in the ad court.

Big points like this one demand the highest percentage pattern of play from the server. Djokovic nailed it.

Overview

With the pressure released from winning the opening set, Djokovic relaxed and found his game, only committing eight unforced errors in Set 2, while winning 100 per cent (7/7) on second serves. He didn’t face a break point.

It was a tough loss for Nadal, but also a very good one. Getting so close in Set 1 was a real positive, and the ability to dictate much more against Djokovic than we have recently seen will bring real hope that his game is headed in the right direction.

Sometimes it does not matter if a lot goes wrong in a tennis match, as long as you find a single ray of light to find your way home.