Surprise to the strength.

The score is 15/30. You just missed your first serve and you now need to weigh up where to direct the second. Safety to the backhand return, right? Not so fast …

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current ATP Top 20 identifies that a vast majority of second serves do go to the backhand return at this specific point score, but a higher percentage of points are won surprising with a second serve down the T to the forehand return.

The best way to understand this strategy dynamic is to know the difference between primary and secondary patterns. Primary patterns are the prime movers that players run most often, such as hitting forehands from the back of the court, playing cross court, and directing second serves to the returner’s backhand wing.

Secondary patterns are lethal when they are combined with the element of surprise. Secondary patterns include serve and volley, attacking down the line, drop shots, and hitting a second serve to the opponent’s more potent forehand return.

Primary patterns are run seven or eight times out of ten and are also meant to condition the opponent’s mind that a specific pattern of play will be run again in the near future. Secondary patterns are best employed AFTER primary patterns have been run.

Bait and switch.

The data set of 1489 second serves at 15/30 comes from ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events and Nitto ATP Finals from 2011-2018. The following breakdown shows just how few second serves go down the T to the forehand (24%), but how this specific location also delivers the highest win percentage (62%).

Kevin Anderson was the peak performer in the Top 20 with second serve points won serving down the T at 15/30. The top three performers at each location are highlighted below.

2nd Serve at 15/30 = Down The T
1. Kevin Anderson = 87% (13/15)
2. Jack Sock = 83% (5/6)
3. Sam Querrey = 82% (9/11)

2nd Serve at 15/30 = At The Body
1. Diego Schwartzman = 71% (5/7)
2. Jack Sock = 70% (21/30)
3. Roberto Bautista Agut = 67% (8/12)

2nd Serve at 15/30 = Out Wide
1. Jack Sock = 67% (10/15)
2. Sam Querrey = 65% (11/17)
3. John Isner = 64% (33/52)

Jack Sock impressively featured in the top three in all three categories. Overall, 15 of the 20 players in the data set had a higher win percentage serving down the T with a surprise second serve to the forehand over the expected second serve out wide to the backhand. It’s important to note that a small percentage of returners were left-handed, which flips the side of the return stroke.

Not all players followed the same pathway with second serve locations at 15/30.

Juan Martin del Potro – the only player that served more down the T (24) than he did down the middle (23), or out wide (15).
Roger Federer – hit the most down the T (57), which was almost as many as he directed out wide (62).
Novak Djokovic – mixed a lot, with 59 out wide, 58 at the body, and 55 down the T.
Milos Raonic – hit many more serves out wide (34) than down the T (8).

The mental side of the game is clearly in play here. Hitting a second serve at 15/30 suggests vulnerability for the server. Cleverly mixing to the forehand return may seem riskier on the surface, but the element of surprise makes this specific location the highest performer.

Dominic Inglot and Robert Lindstedt secured their place in the TEB BNP Paribas Istanbul Open quarter-finals on Wednesday when they knocked out Roman Jebavy and Florin Mergea 7-6(4), 6-1 in 71 minutes. The pair has won one ATP World Tour title together at the 2015 Winston-Salem Open (d. Butorac-Lipsky). The British-Swedish team will next challenge fourth seeds Ken Skupski and Neal Skupski, champions at the Open Sud de France (d. McLachlan/Nys) in February.

At the Millennium Estoril Open, top seeds John Peers and Jean-Julien Rojer joined forces to knock out Argentines Guillermo Duran and Andres Molteni 6-2, 7-6(2) in 75 minutes. They will now meet Jonathan Eysseric and Joe Salisbury, who scraped past Sander Arends and Adil Shamasdin 6-3, 3-6, 10-6.

However, two seeded teams: third seeds Marc Lopez and David Marrero, and fourth seeds Marcelo Demoliner and Santiago Gonzalez fell in the first round.

Despite recovering from a 1-4 deficit to win the first set, Lopez and Marrero were beaten by Wesley Koolhof and Artem Sitak 6-7(5), 6-4, 10-3 in one hour and 35 minutes. Dutchmen Robin Haase and Matwe Middelkoop, winners at the Tata Open Maharashtra and Diema Xtra Sofia Open this year, knocked out Demoliner and Gonzalez 6-4, 6-4 in 65 minutes.

At the BMW Open by FWU, third seeds Nikola Mektic and Alexander Peya defeated Germans Kevin Krawietz and Maximilian Marterer 7-5, 6-4 for a place in the semi-finals. Peya partnered Bruno Soares to the 2015 title (d. Zverev/Zverev). Fourth seeds Max Mirnyi and Philipp Oswald battled hard to beat Daniel Masur and Rudolf Molleker 3-6, 7-5, 10-6 in their opening match.

Did You Know?

Daniel Nestor, who is contesting his 28th and final season as a pro, has compiled a 1061-478 doubles match record, including 91 titles. He has lifted four trophies on German soil at Hamburg in 1996 and 2003 (w/Knowles) and 2008 (w/Zimonjic), and at 2001 Halle (w/Stolle).