It’s a forehand unlike any other. 

The ‘Serve +1’ forehand – struck as the first shot after a serve – is the biggest sleeper in our sport. It’s perfectly disguised as a regular rally forehand, but it’s actually the main offensive juggernaut once the return of serve is put back in play.  

Rafael Nadal defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-2, 7-6(4) in the final of the Rogers Cup on Sunday, with both players leaning heavily on Serve +1 forehands to collect their rally winners. 

To the Toronto final, Nadal was hitting a remarkable 87 per cent forehands as the first shot after his first serve, and 77 per cent behind second serves. In the final against Tsitsipas, he blew those numbers out the window, hitting an astonishing 41 Serve +1 forehands (95 per cent) and just two Serve +1 backhands. Nadal won 18 of 20 (90 per cent) Serve +1 forehands behind his first serve, and 14 of 21 (67 per cent) Serve +1 forehands behind his second serve.

Tsitsipas was also heavily reliant on his Serve +1 forehand, hitting it 86 per cent (36/42) of the time behind all serves in the match. 

The real question is why do these elite players have such a thirst for a forehand right after the serve? The answer is simple. The Serve +1 forehand enjoys the “halo effect” of a dominant serve, delivering the server more time and improved court position to immediately end the point before the returner can diffuse the rally into a neutral battle.

The following breakdown shows just how offensive Serve +1 forehands really are. 

Nadal Forehand Winners
• Serve +1 Forehands = 11 
• All Other Forehands = 4 

Tsitsipas Forehand Winners
• Serve +1 Forehands = 8 
• All Other Forehands = 0 

It’s important to note that Serve +1 forehands contributed 19 winners, while the eight combined Serve +1 backhands didn’t register a single winner. Of the 23 total forehand winners hit at all rally lengths in the match, 83 per cent (19) were struck with a Serve +1 forehand.

There was only one forehand winner for the entire match that came after a player returned serve. It was Nadal returning in the first point of the 3-1 game in the opening set. The Spaniard hit a deep backhand return, and an even deeper forehand on the next ball that set up a crushing forehand blow standing right on the baseline. 

With so much offence happening around Serve +1 forehands, is there also an inordinate amount of errors here as well?

The short answer is no. 

Nadal Forehand Errors
• Serve +1 Forehands = 2 
• All Others = 5 

Tsitsipas Forehand Errors
• Serve +1 Forehands = 5 
• All Others = 13 

Serve +1 forehands accounted for 83 per cent (19/23) of all forehand winners, but only 23 per cent (7/25) of forehand errors. It’s stock just keep rising and rising.

Nadal’s 11 Serve +1 forehand winners were sourced primarily from serving to Tsitsipas’ backhand return. The Greek hit seven backhand returns (5 Ad Ct / 2 Deuce Ct) and four forehand returns (3 Deuce Ct / 1 Ad Ct) that Nadal immediately hit a Serve +1 forehand winner from. 

The only dynamic that we have traditionally counted with groundstrokes is winners and errors. We can clearly see from this match that more layers are needed to paint an accurate picture of baseline performance – specifically who is serving and at what rally length was the ending shot struck. 

On match point, with Nadal serving at 6/4 in the second set tie-break, He made a first serve and ran around a return directed to his backhand and crushed a Serve +1 forehand winner to win the match. What a fitting way to cross the finish line.

In July 2017, Alex de Minaur was grinding his way through $15K Futures tournaments in Portugal. The 18-year-old Australian was learning the game, earning his stripes, and laying the foundation for his pro career.

Fast forward to July 2018 and the 19-year-old from Sydney is now one of the hottest players on the ATP World Tour. He has jumped from No. 244 to No. 45 in 12 months, and has only 30 ATP Rankings points to defend through the rest of the 2018.

Look out world.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of De Minaur’s meteoric rise up the ATP Rankings once again uncovers that all points are not created equal in our sport. 

Consider these 2018 metrics the next time you get disappointed about losing a point in your match:

De Minaur’s win/loss record is a healthy 16-13.

Read More: Belief, Hewitt’s Advice, Propel #NextGenATP De Minaur

He has won $609,891 in prize money.

He made the finals of the Citi Open, an ATP World Tour 500-level event, in Washington last week, and also reached the finals of the Sydney International, an ATP World Tour 250-level event, in January.

He has actually lost 14 more points than he has won (2210 won / 2224 lost).

In 2018, De Minaur’s ATP Ranking has climbed from No. 208 to No. 45, but you would never know it from looking at the amount of points he has won and lost.

The reality of tennis is that the margins between winning and losing are razor thin. A point or two won at the right time in Washington can help launch a career. A point or two lost in Cincinnati can stop momentum in its tracks.

De Minaur is excelling more on the return side of the game than serving so far. He is currently ranked No. 47 on the Infosys ATP Return LEADERBOARD, powered by Infosys Nia Data, but drops down to No. 64 when serving.

What De Minaur does do well is perform under pressure. He is 18th best on tour in the past 52 weeks in winning tie-breaks at 61.5 per cent, and 15th best with deciding sets won, at 66.7 per cent.

De Minaur is currently in third place in the ATP Race To Milan, behind Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas. The top seven will qualify automatically for the Next Gen ATP Finals, to be held 6-10 November in Milan, while the eighth spot will be reserved for the winner of an all-Italian qualifier tournament to be held just prior to the prestigious 21-and-under event.

Who knows how much further his Race position is going to climb when that tournament kicks off on 6 November.