ATPWorldTour.com previews the two Davis Cup semi-finals, beginning on Friday.

CROATIA vs. UNITED STATES
Sportski Centar Visnjik, Zadar – Clay (Outdoors)

Croatia is attempting to maintain its unbeaten record against the United States in the Davis Cup. The 2005 champion beat United States in 2003, 2005, 2009 and 2016.

Croatia, almost two years on from losing to Argentina in the 2016 final, is bidding to extend its six-tie winning streak on clay courts in Zadar. Captain Zeljko Krajan has selected Marin Cilic, Borna Coric, Mate Pavic and Ivan Dodig.

Coric starts proceedings on Friday against American Steve Johnson, while Cilic faces Frances Tiafoe, who is making his Davis Cup debut. Dodig and Pavic are scheduled to challenge Mike Bryan and Ryan Harrison in Saturday’s doubles rubber. Mike Bryan is playing his first Davis Cup match since retiring from the competition in 2016.

World No. 6 Cilic, who has a 36-10 record (26-10 in singles) in Davis Cup ties, has a formidable 7-1 singles mark in home ties since 2010 (13-4 overall since his debut in 2006). He is currently tied with Ivan Ljubicic (36-19) for most Davis Cup victories for Croatia.

“I’m extremely satisfied about it,” said Tiafoe, the 141st player to represent the United States in Davis Cup. “I’m happy to be on the team, happy to get the opportunity and to be with a great group of guys. I’m just ready to go and to have a good week.”

The United States is bidding to advance to the final for the first time since 2007, when the nation defeated Russia 4-1 for its 32nd title. United States has won three of its past four away ties.

FRANCE vs. SPAIN
Stade Pierre Mauroy, Lille – Hard (Indoors)

Defending champion France, 10-time titlist overall, plays host to Spain as the two countries face off in Davis Cup for the first time since 2011. Five-time winner Spain defeated France in the 2004 and 2011 semi-finals en route to the historic trophy.

Benoit Paire will make his debut for France in the first rubber against Pablo Carreno Busta of Spain, while Lucas Pouille, who clinched the decisive rubber in the 2017 final, meets Roberto Bautista Agut. Julien Benneteau, who retires this year, is scheduled to join forces with Nicolas Mahut against Spain’s Marcel Granollers and Feliciano Lopez on Saturday.

“Mentally, before, I was not ready to play for the French team… But now I feel good, I feel fresh and confident,” said Paire, who is preferred over French No. 2 Richard Gasquet. “During this year, I’ve been much more consistent and honestly I feel much better in my head and now I really want to win.”

France is bidding to reach consecutive Davis Cup finals for the first time since 2001-02 – and only the seventh nation overall in the past 20 years. Spain, winners of six of its past seven ties, attempts to advance to its first title match since 2012 (l. to Czech Republic).

One year ago, Lukasz Kubot and Marcelo Melo were the doubles team to beat on the ATP World Tour. The reigning Wimbledon champions had put together a strong North American hard-court swing and remained at No. 1 in the ATP Doubles Race To London, where they would finish the season, the first time they ended a campaign at the top spot.

But 2018 has presented a new series of challenges as the 36-year-old Kubot and 34-year-old Melo have seen the best every team has had to offer. They have gone 28-18 together this year.

But the Pole/Brazilian pairing remains in the hunt for their second consecutive appearance at the season-ending Nitto ATP Finals, to be held 11-18 November at The O2 in London. Kubot/Melo are in eighth place in the Doubles Race; the top eight teams qualify for the prestigious season finale.

They finished as finalists during the prestigious tournament last year, falling to two-time champions Henri Kontinen/John Peers.

Kubot/Melo started the year perfectly, winning the Sydney International. “It was great. I think we played very good in the final, as we have been playing in the tournament,” Melo said in Sydney.

They then repeated as champions at the Gerry Weber Open in Halle (d. Zverev/Zverev) and sprinted to the US Open doubles final (l. to Bryan/Sock), their first Grand Slam title match since 2017 Wimbledon.

Kubot/Melo, who are in their second full season of playing together, have enjoyed so much success because their games match up well, Kubot said. “Marcelo is so quick at the net… I’m trying to build the game from the back of the court,” Kubot said.

The pairing will have their work cut out for them if they want to finish as the year-end No. 1 doubles team again. But winning streaks are not a problem for Kubot/Melo. At one point last year, during the grass-court season and at the start of the North American hard-court swing, the team had won 17 consecutive matches.

Roger Federer has long been the most dominant tie-break competitor on the ATP World Tour. No other player in the history of tennis has won a higher rate of tie-breaks (65.1 per cent) or a greater number of tie-breaks (432), according to the FedEx ATP Performance Zone.

But it takes a little bit of digging to learn just how impressive that is. For instance, this year’s Wimbledon and US Open champion, Novak Djokovic, ranks second among active players by winning 63.3 per cent of tie-breaks in his career. To pass Federer, the Serbian would need to win his next 19 tie-breaks without losing one, and have Federer stand still on the leaderboard. Not so easy. 

Best Career Tie-break Win-Rates All-Time

Federer’s dominance in tie-breaks also extends to championship matches, where the level of competition is the toughest.

“The tie-breaks are huge, especially in big-time moments like Grand Slam finals or finals in general,” Federer said at the US Open. “That’s where you really, really want to win the breakers.”

In finals at Grand Slams, ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events and the Nitto ATP Finals, Federer has won 40 of 65 tie-breaks, a 61.5 per cent win rate. Only 10 players other than Federer have been that successful in championship match tie-breaks at all tour-level events, forget while having a ‘Big Title’ on the line.

He has been especially effective in Grand Slam finals, triumphing in a jaw-dropping 70 per cent of his tie-breaks in those moments. Federer thought deeply in Flushing Meadows about what it takes to thrive at 6-6 in a set.

“If you have a good serve, that’s always helpful,” Federer said. “You want to play patiently aggressive, I would think. You don’t want to go for broke, don’t want to do crazy things. But it does sometimes pay off as well. You have to balance it right.”

The two active players directly behind Federer in number of tie-breaks won are arguably two of the biggest servers of all time in John Isner (387-244, 61.3%) and Ivo Karlovic (377-378, 49.9%).

Most Career Tie-break Wins All-Time

Those are the only two players in history whose tie-break victory total comes within 100 of Federer’s. And while Federer has split eight tie-breaks in his FedEx ATP Head2Head series with Isner, the 37-year-old Swiss has won 15 of 18 against Karlovic. Part of his success at a set’s end has come from his mindset heading into the finale.

“I think it really depends on how the set has gone. Do you play better as the set goes forward? Or, sometimes, you also have the feeling that you go in a breaker and you’re just like, ‘It’s just not happening, I’m not feeling the serve, the return’s not happening, the play is going his way,’” Federer said. “I think when you go in with a negative mindset into a breaker, very often you also either start poorly and then you lose it anyway, or you actually start well, and you’re like, ‘I probably shouldn’t be in the lead’, and then you end up losing it. So I think a very positive mindset is good.”

Now, you might ask, didn’t Federer lose two tie-breaks en route to a fourth-round defeat against John Millman at the US Open? Yes, but that appears to be an exception, not a norm. In fact, Federer has lost two set tie-breaks in the same match just 23 times in his career. However, the Swiss has earned two or more tie-break victories in the same match 53 times.

So while it doesn’t always work out for the World No. 2 in every tie-break, it’s safe to assign ‘The Swiss Maestro’ an additional nickname: ‘The Tie-break Titan’.

Is tennis really a race to 40?

Consider the following metrics at the elite level of our sport. If a Top 10 player is the first to reach the point score of 40 when serving or receiving – no matter how many points the opponent has – they are on average favoured to win the game.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 from the start of the 2015 season to this week identifies that being first to 40 is almost a lock to hold when serving, and makes the returner a statistical favourite when returning.

The only exception to that rule was John Isner and Kevin Anderson returning with the point score at 30/40. For all other Top 10 players, they were the favourite when returning if they got to 40 first whether serving or receiving.

Current Top 10: Percentage Chance of Winning The Game Being First to 40
(Leader in each point score in Bold)

^{*Top 10 player is returning}

What’s fascinating is that Juan Martin del Potro was the peak performer (tied with Marin Cilic) holding serve at 40/0, at 99.8 per cent, and was also the leader breaking serve from 0/40 when returning, at 87.6 per cent.

John Isner led the Top 10 holding from 40/15 (98.1 per cent) and 40/30 (93.7 per cent), while Rafael Nadal led the way breaking from 15/40 (81 per cent) and 30/40 (66.6 per cent).

Read More: How Quickly Federer, The Top 10 Race Through Their Service Games

The data also presents an interesting proposition to consider…

You play a practice set where you always start at 40/30 on your own service games, and your opponent must always start serving in a 0/40 hole in their service games. Statistically, which one is better for you?

It turns out that serving at 40/30 for the Top 10 is far superior, as they average holding 93.7 per cent of the time, while breaking 78.1 per cent of the time when returning at 0/40.

Getting to the point score of 40 gets you to within one point of winning the game. Now we have some percentages at the elite level of our sport to know exactly how close they really are to taking the next step and winning it.