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Courtney Nguyen, Point: The Serena Williams who walks out on Centre Court on Saturday for the Wimbledon final will be a different Serena from the one who strode out on Rod Laver Arena six months ago.

The Australian Open was Serena’s first tournament back since taking a tough loss to Roberta Vinci at the US Open, a loss that ended her high-profile quest for the Calendar Grand Slam. Serena took the rest of the season off and she returned in Melbourne appearing to be firing on all cylinders.

But the key word was “appeared.” It was impossible to shake the feeling when watching and talking to her throughout those two weeks that she was still fighting off the disappointment from New York. She faced an avalanche of questions about how she dealt with the loss, how much it hurt, is she ready now to win No.22. She answered. It wasn’t always convincing.

On court she was great. She advanced to the final without the loss of a set, beating two Top 5 players in Maria Sharapova and Agnieszka Radwanska, crushing the Pole in the semifinalist 6-0, 6-4. Across the net in the final was No.6 Angelique Kerber, a woman who had only beaten her once and who was playing in her first Slam final. All signs pointed to a dominant Serena win.

As we know, that did not happen. Kerber shocked Serena and the world with a 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 win to capture her first Slam title.

“I made a lot of errors,” Serena said, recalling the match. “She made little to no unforced errors. It was still a three set match. I felt like I could have played better.

“I felt like she played great. She came out swinging, ready to win. She was fearless. That’s something I learned. When I go into a final, I, too, need to be fearless like she was.”

So why should we expect a different result at Wimbledon? The answer is right there in the question: Wimbledon. The Serena-Kerber match-up is one thing on a neutral hard court — all seven of their previous matches have been on hard court — but on grass the advantage sways heavily to Serena. No surface rewards her for her weapons like grass.

“I was very intense the whole time,” Serena said after her 6-2, 6-0 win over Elena Vesnina in the semifinals. “I ran and I worked hard. I served well, I moved well. The scoreline just reflected me doing what I know I can do.”

A look at the numbers posted during the fortnight all point to a Serena who is outperforming her 2016 self, particularly on her vaunted serve. Heading into the final, she leads the tournament in aces with 61 so far. That’s an average of 10 aces per match, compared to her season average of approximately 7 per match. She is averaging 66% of her first serves in at Wimbledon (season average: 60%) , winning 81% of her first serve points (season average: 73%) and 51% of her second serve points (season average: 50%). All in all, she’s won 90% of her service games in six matches (season average: 80%).

Serena has also picked up her return game. She has won 51% of her return games (season average: 44.8%) and she is attacking her opponents’ second serve with ferocity, winning 65% of the points on her opponent’s second serve (season average: 58%).

But the serve is the key for Serena. If she can roll through her first few games with clean holds, her shoulders will relax and her game will flow. One of the biggest mistakes she made in Melbourne was giving away an early break to Kerber in the first set. That break turned the match on its head and Serena got tighter as the match wore on. The way Serena has been serving at Wimbledon, I just don’t see the same thing happening on Saturday, even against a returner of Kerber’s quality.

“For me, it’s about obviously holding the trophy and winning, which would make it a better accomplishment for me,” Serena said. “For me, [making three consecutive finals is] not enough.

“But I think that’s what makes me different. That’s what makes me Serena.”

Of course the technical and tactical analysis only holds up if Serena can step out on the court and perform without the nerves that racked her in Melbourne. Throughout these two weeks, Serena has cut a confident, almost defiant form both on court and off court. She has met every question with a strong riposte. There has been a laser focus that has honed in as the tournament progressed. That mentality will take her to No.22 on Saturday.

“Sometimes when you are fighting, sometimes you want something so bad, it can hinder you a little bit,” Serena said. “Now I’m just a little bit more calm…. Doesn’t mean that I have less competitive [instincts] at all. I think confidence brews peace and calm in champions. I think that’s how I feel.”

David Kane, Counterpoint: If Serena is calmer, Angelique Kerber is relaxed, a feeling she has expressed several times in her last two press conferences.

“I’m feeling more relaxed and I’m not making things too complicated like in Australia,” she said after a decisive 6-4, 6-4 win over five-time Wimbledon winner Venus Williams in Thursday’s semifinal. “I think this is the key.”

“I’m a little bit more relaxed when I’m going to the tournaments,” she added later on. “I know that I can trust my tennis.”

It wouldn’t be a word you could attribute to Kerber for much of the spring. Early losses in the Middle East and Indian Wells foreshadowed a crushing first round loss at the French Open.

“In Paris, it was actually too much pressure that I put on myself. I learned from everything.”

The last 18 months have indeed been a learning process for the German veteran, who converted her 2015 success at Premier-level tournaments into Grand Slam glory with her stunning Australian Open victory. The pressure and expectations of being a major champion have been converted in kind, and Kerber raced into her first Wimbledon final without losing a set.

“I learned from my up and downs. I know how to handle all the stuff which I’m doing off court. I know that I have to take the time for my practice and focusing on the gym things and on the tennis, as well.”

For the soon-to-be World No.1, the tennis doesn’t look too different these days, as she’ll face Serena in the first Grand Slam final rematch since 2006, when International Tennis Hall of Fame Inductees Amélie Mauresmo and Justine Henin faced off in the Australian Open and Wimbledon finals.

It’s only everything else that’s changed.

“It’s a little bit different than in Australia because that was my first Grand Slam final there. Here I know what happens after. I know the experience what’s came directly after Australia.

“I think for sure I will go out there with a lot of confidence. At the end it’s a completely new match. We are playing on grass court. She lost the final against me, and I know she will go out and try everything to beat me right now.

“I will just try to going out there like in Australia, trying to show her, ‘Okay, I’m here to win the match, as well.’ I know that I have to play my best tennis to beat her in the final here.”

Kerber knows the serve will be an important factor in Saturday’s final, and as good as Serena has served, the German has held her own, maintaining a 71% first serve percentage in each of her last two rounds against Venus and No.5 seed Simona Halep. She has managed a postive winner-to-unforced error differential in all but one of her six matches at the All England Club, but will need to improve the 27% second serve percentage that nearly complicated an otherwise straightforward semifinal.

She also has the unenviable task of playing against history, as Serena once again aims to tie Stefanie Graf – Kerber’s compatriot – for total Grand Slam titles won at 22.

“It’s always tough to play against players like this. I mean, I will try to go in my own way, trying not thinking too much about the history of my opponents. It’s a new day, a new match. For me it’s always important to give everything I could this day.

Of course, it’s a big day for me tomorrow. I will try to  go out and win it, of course. It’s always tough against Serena. But, I will try to take the experience from Australia and trying to be a little bit more relaxed.”

A relaxed Kerber has proven more than dangerous thus far this season; playing on one of her best surfaces with the confidence of a champion, the veteran will be more than a worthy contender on Centre Court come Saturday.

Here more from the WTA Insider team as Courtney Nguyen is joined by wtatennis.com contributor Chris Oddo to preview the Wimbledon final in the latest WTA Insider Podcast:

All photos courtesy of Getty Images.

With the Australian summer in the books, Serena Williams is firmly in control of the tour, having won her 23rd Grand Slam title to surpass Stefanie Graf. Looming on the schedule is the Middle East swing, featuring tournaments in Doha and Dubai; can former No.1 Angelique Kerber reassert herself as the one to beat? How will Australian Open semifinalist CoCo Vandeweghe follow up her big week Down Under?

In the first edition of the WTA Insider Heat Index, Senior Writer Courtney Nguyen and Web Editor David Kane weigh in on who’s hot and who’s not after the first month of the season.

For more on the Heat Index and the methodology behind it, click here.

Courtney’s Picks:

1. Serena Williams (Rank: No.1; RTS No.1): Serena’s run to her record-breaking 23rd major title at the Australian Open was one of the most dominant runs of tennis in the last three years. If she continues to stay healthy and play with the relaxed attitude she displayed in Melbourne, the field is going to have a tough time against her.

2. Johanna Konta (Rank: No.10; RTS No.3): With wins already over Agnieszka Radwanska, Caroline Wozniacki, Daria Kasatkina, and an in-form Eugenie Bouchard, Konta has flown out of the gates in 2017. The British No.1 has already compiled a 12-2 record on the season, won the Apia International Sydney, and has won 20 of her last 22 sets of tennis. Those two lost sets came at the hands of Serena in the Australian Open quarterfinals.

3. Karolina Pliskova (Rank: No.3; RTS No.4): Much like Konta, Pliskova’s start has been near-perfect. She’s lost just one match under new coach David Kotyza, compiling a 9-1 record to start the year. She blew away the field to win the Brisbane International without losing a set and came within a few games of booking her spot in yet another major semifinal at the Australian Open. Pliskova may fall away when the tour turns to clay in April, but these first few months on hardcourts should be right in her wheelhouse.

4. Garbiñe Muguruza (Rank: No.7; RTS No.7): She was blasted off the court by a red hot CoCo Vandeweghe at the Australian Open, but Muguruza’s January showed marked improvements over how she finished 2016. At the season’s biggest events so far she made the semifinals of Brisbane and the quarterfinals in Melbourne, the first time she made it past the fourth round of a Slam since winning the French Open. With a Top 10 win under her belt against Svetlana Kuznetsova and a 7-2 overall record, Muguruza is back on track.

5. Agnieszka Radwanska (Rank: No.6; RTS No.17): Radwanska’s lackluster 6-3 record, with losses to Alison Riske (Shenzhen Open SF), Johanna Konta (Sydney Final), and Mirjana Lucic-Baroni (Australian Open 2R) belie her form. After a racquet switch during the off-season she’s getting more pace on the ball without sacrificing her feel and all three losses came to precisely the type of players she’s most vulnerable against: big, flat hitters. But she’s still made the quarterfinals or better at seven of her last eight events.

6. Angelique Kerber (Rank: No.2; RTS No.22): It’s been a slow 4-3 start for the former No.1, but her losses have not been bad ones, losing to Svitolina, Kasatkina, and Vandeweghe. She’s not far from her standard level and a good run in the Middle East should put her back on track. One shot to keep an eye on her: her serve. It hasn’t been there for her so far this year.

7. CoCo Vandeweghe (Rank: No.20; RTS No.5): The American is the lowest-ranked player on this week’s list but her blistering run to her first major semifinal in Melbourne was undeniable, scoring wins over Roberta Vinci, Bouchard, Kerber, and Muguruza. Vandeweghe’s average rank of opponent in 2017 is 35, which is the best of any player on this list (the next best is Konta at 52, Serena at 53). We have to see whether Vandeweghe can back up the result – she lost to then No.103 Duan Ying-Ying a week before Melbourne – but she’s the hot hand on tour.

8. Elina Svitolina (Rank: No. 13; RTS No.8): The Ukrainian is knocking on the door of her Top 10 debut, having started her year with a win over Kerber and then winning her fifth title of the season last week at the Taiwan Open. Svitolina is 10-2 on the season, though her win over Kerber is her only win over a Top 30 player so far this season.

9. Svetlana Kuznetsova (Rank: No.8; RTS No.10): Her 7-4 start to the year includes two quarterfinals in Brisbane and St. Petersburg and a Round of 16 appearance at the Australian Open. She also finished 2016 having made the semifinals or better at four of her last five tournaments. Always one to march to the beat of her own drummer, it seems Kuznetsova has rediscovered her consistency.

10. Venus Williams (Rank No.11; RTS No.2): Given her inspired run to the Australian Open final, it may be surprising to see Venus down at No.10. Feel-good story aside, she did not beat a Top 25 player to make the final and faced only one seeded player (Pavlyuchenkova), so it’s difficult to gauge whether her form was lightning in a bottle or sustainable. She was understandably out of gas by the time she arrived in St. Petersburg, losing quickly to Kristina Mladenovic. We’ll have a better sense of her form when she returns at the BNP Paribas Open in March.

11. Dominika Cibulkova (Rank No.5; RTS No.14): Her four losses have all come to players ranked outside the Top 30 (Alizé Cornet, Bouchard, Ekaterina Makarova, and Yulia Putintseva) and her only Top 20 win has come against Elena Vesnina. Cibulkova is still stuck in second gear to start the season, but she’s not far off from a solid level.

12. Barbora Strycova (Rank No.17; RTS No.12): The Czech is one of the most dangerous floaters in most tournament draws these days. She’s 8-3 to start the season, with two of those losses coming to Serena (Australian Open) and Radwanska (Sydney). Meanwhile she’s racked up good wins over quality opposition, including Vinci, Caroline Wozniacki, Andrea Petkovic, and Caroline Garcia.

David’s Picks:

1. Serena Williams (Rank: No.1; RTS: No.1): The American stormed into the history books in emphatic style, winning the Australian Open without dropping a set and reclaiming the No.1 ranking. Even at 35, Serena is in a class of her own, and her newfound on-court serenity should make her all the more frightening through the spring.

2. Karolina Pliskova (Rank: No.3; RTS: No.4): Pliskova made a booming start in Brisbane, and put to rest any doubts about her Grand Slam consistency by reaching another second week in Melbourne. A former finalist in Dubai, the Czech powerhouse has been on the ascendency since last summer, and has all the weapons to continue doing damage in either the Qatar Total Open, or the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships – or both.

3. Johanna Konta (Rank: No.10; RTS: No.3): There’s been no sophomore slump thus far for Konta, who is quickly making a career of efficiently beating those ranked below her. Her domination of Radwanska in the Sydney final was encouraging, but the Brit will need to rack up more of those wins to rise further up the rankings. A solid force on hardcourts, she’s nonetheless untested in the Middle East – set to make her debut in Dubai after opting out of Doha to play Fed Cup.

4. Garbiñe Muguruza (Rank: No.7; RTS: No.7): Muguruza showed us a little bit of everything in Australia: her devastating power, her flair for the dramatic, and her open admission that the she’s still figuring it all out since winning her maiden major title at the French Open. The Spaniard has grown leaps and bounds since her post-Paris slump to start 2017, and has few points to defend at events that have the kind of courts on which she can comfortably dictate.

5. Angelique Kerber (Rank: No.2; RTS: No.22): It hasn’t been all roses for the former No.1 in 2017, who saw herself stunned by an inspired Vandeweghe in Melbourne. Kerber looks fitter than ever, but is still adjusting to her role as the one to beat if losses to Elina Svitolina and Kasatkina are any indication. Strong runs in Doha and Dubai could see her return to the top spot, but look for the Middle East as an opportunity for the German to get back to basics with Indian Wells and Miami on the horizon.

6. CoCo Vandeweghe (Rank: No.20; RTS: No.5): Recency bias aside, Vandeweghe’s excellent advanture Down Under was objectively the biggest revelation thus far this season. Barreling through Kerber and Muguruza in back-to-back, high-stakes matches takes some doing, and it will be interesting to see whether the American, who posted solid results in the Middle East last year, can keep up that intensity in Doha and Dubai.

7. Dominika Cibulkova (Rank: No.5; RTS: No.14): The reigning BNP Paribas WTA Finals Singapore presented by SC Global champion has had an understandably slower start after her breakneck finish to 2016, but will have plenty of opportunity to kickstart her season in the Middle East after a solid week in St. Petersburg. With little to defend between now and the clay court season, the Slovak can easily find herself in the Top 3 by Miami.

8. Agnieszka Radwanska (Rank: No.6; RTS: No.17): Radwanska began 2017 looking for answers, switching racquets with the hope of adding a more powerful dimension to her off-court game. Ironic, then, that her three losses to start the season came against big-hitters in Shenzhen, Sydney, and Melbourne. A semifinalist last year in Doha, the Pole is certainly capable of building up a consistent foundation in the Middle East, but this more long term strategy may see more short term losses before the tour turns moves stateside.

9. Venus Williams (Rank: No.11; RTS: No.2): Venus undoubtedly turned back the clock in Melbourne. It wasn’t against the strongest field, but the former No.1 fed off her superior fitness and experience to roar into her first major final in seven years. Her performance in St. Petersburg immediately after showed her lacking in the former, and sitting out Doha and Dubai is likely a wise decision as she readies for what could be a grueling March. With the clay swing just around the corner, she’ll have fewer chances to advance up the rankings before Wimbledon.

10. Elina Svitolina (Rank: No.13; RTS: No.8): Svitolina is one of the next generation’s most enigmatic players. The Ukrainian can string together title runs at WTA Internationals, earn big wins at Premiers, but can rarely combine the two for a truly noteworthy week. Fresh off a title in Taiwan, she could solve the mystery in Doha and Dubai, having made the semifinals last year at the latter.

11. Barbora Strycova (Rank: No.17; RTS: No.12): Strycova has stealthily earned the most consistent results of the season, and is on the road to becoming a fixture at the business end of big tournaments. Last year’s Dubai runner-up earned two Top 20 wins en route to the semifinals in Sydney, and pushed Serena to two tough sets in Melbourne; can she take that extra step in the Middle East?

12. Svetlana Kuznetsova (Rank: No.8; RTS: No.10): Kuznetsova could have found herself higher on the list were it not for kryptonite Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who knocked her out of back-to-back events in Australia. Still looking confident after her nearly flawless end to 2016, the Russian took a precautionary withdrawal from Doha and could be poised for a big run in Dubai, where she thrice reached the final.

Summary:

All photos courtesy of Getty Images.

DOHA, Qatar: Former World No.1 Angelique Kerber is aiming to get back to winning ways in Doha – and she is not letting herself get distracted by thoughts of reclaiming the top spot.

“For me it’s really important to play good tennis and to try to improve my game – that is actually my goal always,” she said before the beginning of her tournament.

“I will do my best in the next few weeks, few months. If you play good tennis, then you have results. This is actually for me the most important thing, to win matches again, getting the confidence back. Then we will see what happens in the next few months.”

The 29-year-old revealed that she had enjoyed her short break from tennis after her early departure from Melbourne.

“After Australia I went back home and I spent few days at home, doing nothing actually, just being at home,” she admitted.

“It was very cold. But then I started practising again. I came here to Doha little bit earlier to get ready and to get used to the courts and the weather conditions. I’m feeling ready to play again because it’s, since Australia, a long time since I played matches. It’s great to play again here and then in Dubai next week.”

And she now feels fully prepared to fight for trophies again.

“I think it was not bad to get a bigger rest, to get ready for these two tournaments,” she added.

“I’m feeling good. The first rounds are always a little bit tougher because you have to get used to the tournament feeling again, to the match things. But I think that I’m ready. I am really enjoying my tennis right now on the practice court.”