Insider Debates: Who Will Win Miami
David Kane, Point: If Victoria Azarenka becomes the third woman in WTA history to achieve the Indian Wells-Miami “Sunshine” Double, the two-time Australian Open champion will have shown her ability to succeed on two ends of the competitive spectrum. Her run to the BNP Paribas Open title saw Azarenka shine as the underdog, battling through a grueling three-setter with Karolina Pliskova in the semis to stun heavy favorite and World No.1 Serena Williams in the championship match.
By contrast, her fortnight in Miami has allowed her to play the alpha, likes of which we’ve rarely seen since her 26-match winning streak in 2012. Up against tricky opposition in Johanna Konta and Angelique Kerber – the woman who halted her initial early-season momentum en route to the Australian Open title – Azarenka has been largely unbothered, taking less than eight hours to win five matches in straight sets.
“I really didn’t wait for her to give me anything,” she said after beating Kerber. “I really went out there and took my opportunities, which was missing in Australia, where I wasn’t aggressive enough. I know we got broken both a lot of times, but my serve was really strong when it needed. That also made a difference.”
Svetlana Kuznetsova stands between Azarenka and the Sunshine Double; a deadlocked head-to-head dating back to 2007 belies the Belarusian’s recent dominance in their rivalry, winning four of their last five encounters. Their two Miami matches went the distance, with Azarenka’s 6-3, 2-6, 7-5 semifinal victory serving as the springboard to her career breakthrough and the first of her two Miami titles in 2009.
“She’s a very talented and diverse player. I know she has had her up and downs in her career, but she knows how to handle big stages. She is a two-time Grand Slam champion, so it speaks a lot.
“Seeing her coming back into her form, I know she’s always been a dangerous player, so for me it’s going to be really fun challenge to see also where we both are in a different timing of our career since we last played.”
Indeed, their last match was at the 2013 Australian Open, when Azarenka was on top of the world and on her way to defending her maiden major title. Both have had their share of ups and downs, but the Belarusian can handle a big stage as well – if not better – than the 2006 champion.
“It’s going to be really fun. It’s tough, but the final can be unpredictable and is the type of the match where you give it all.”
Courtney Nguyen, Counterpoint: Svetlana Kuznetsova has an uncanny knack for spoiling a coronation. To win her first major she stunned Elena Dementieva as a 19-year-old to win the 2004 US Open. Five years later she upended No.1 Dinara Safina in the 2009 French Open final to win her second major. This year at the Miami Open she ended eight-time champion Serena Williams’ 20-match win-streak at Crandon Park and on Saturday she has a chance to win her biggest title since 2009, re-enter the Top 10 for the first time in nearly six years, and stop Azarenka from completing the Sunshine Double.
If the 30-year-old Russian can pull it off we might as well christen her the Sunshine Stopper. When she won the Miami Open a decade ago in 2006, she did so by defeating Maria Sharapova in the final, preventing her compatriot from winning both Indian Wells and Miami that year.
Of course, 2006 was a long time ago in, what feels like, a galaxy far, far away. In the 10 years that have ticked by we’ve seen the incredibly talented but impossibly inconsistent Kuznetsova show up when we least expect it and go on a walkabout when we’ve penciled her through. This year she won her second tournament of the year at the Apia International Sydney at the height of the Australian summer. She then failed to win back-to-back matches until Miami. This is the whiplash-inducing career of Svetlana Kuznetsova in a nutshell.
Yet when she gets herself into the business end of tournaments, Kuznetsova has been more reliable than not. She has won her last two finals. Another fun stat cutting Kuznetsova’s way? The two biggest tournaments of the season so far have been won by the women who knocked Serena out of the tournament, as Kuznetsova did here.
But setting aside statistics and symmetry, Kuznetsova goes into Saturday’s final as the underdog and that’s a good thing. The pressure is firmly on Azarenka’s shoulders. Given her incredible start to the season and the quality players she’s beaten to build her 21-1 record, she’s expected to win on Saturday. That should allow Kuznetsova to play without pressure or expectations. And that’s the emotional climate she needs to play her best tennis.
“I didn’t feel going in that good shape going to the US swing,” the Russian said after her semifinal. “I was not feeling confident at all. After I had a loss in Indian Wells I tried to work a lot and training every morning a lot just to get confidence back, get my fitness.
“I’m doing better. I appreciate, and I am blessed I have my body to play so many years and to win against good players, top players. It’s great when things come together. Either way, it’s not the end of the world, but it’s a great week. I’m really pleased and happy the way I fight through all these tournaments and weeks and players.”
Listen to more thoughts from Kane and Nguyen on the Miami Open final in the latest WTA Insider Podcast:
All photos courtesy of Getty Images.
