Insider Draw Analysis: Madrid
MADRID, Spain – The Mutua Madrid Open draw is out. Here are our biggest questions as the tour turns to the biggest clay court tournament before the French Open.
1. How will Agnieszka Radwanska do as the top seed?
It’s no secret Radwanska isn’t in love with this part of the season. Asked during All-Access Hour where she would rank clay as a surface, she smiled ruefully. “Third,” she said with a laugh. “But that’s still good, right?”
With Serena Williams’ withdrawal, Radwanska is indeed the top seed in Madrid, a turn of events that she jokingly referred to as “weird”. She sits atop the top half of the draw, which includes Victoria Azarenka and defending champion Petra Kvitova.
Radwanska opens against No.38 Dominika Cibulkova. Radwanska leads their head-to-head 7-3 but this will be their first meeting on clay in a decade. Given Cibulkova’s prowess and confidence on clay – she was the 2009 French Open semifinalist and 2012 quarterfinalist – and Radwanska’s lack of confidence on the surface, this is as tricky a first rounder as Aga could have been handed. The winner gets another challenge in either Caroline Garcia or Johanna Konta in the second round.
2. Will Victoria Azarenka pick up where she left off?
Madrid sees the return of Azarenka, who has not played a WTA event since completing the Sunshine Double by winning Indian Wells and Miami. Her 24-1 record remains the standard on tour and she told reporters her training block after Miami introduced some new elements to her clay court game.
“It was my first real preparation on clay with my new team so there were a few new things and tips that I learned a little bit for my movement that were insightful,” Azarenka told reporters during All-Access Hour on Friday.
“Fed Cup was in the middle of my preparation but I felt like the little adjustments were already working. I was just trying to play them through the matches. I felt the last week or so after Fed Cup, I spent a good [amount of time] playing on clay. But you never know. Sometimes you have great preparation and it doesn’t work and sometimes you don’t have any preparation and you play well.”
Azarenka opens against Laura Robson, who is into the main draw with a protected ranking.
3. Can Kerber keep it going?
Success during the early part of the clay season isn’t new for Kerber. Sustaining that momentum into the big events is. After winning Charleston and Stuttgart last year, Kerber lost in the first round of Madrid, the second round of Rome, and the third round of the French Open.
“I mean, it just can be better than last year,” Kerber said during All-Access Hour. “I’m looking forward. I’m feeling good, I’m practicing a few days here. I’m healthy so that’s the most important thing for me.”
Kerber has never made it past the quarterfinals in Madrid but she is relaxed and full of confidence after her Stuttgart win. She opens her tournament against Barbora Strycova. Kerber has won all eight sets they’ve played, so the match-up has been one that’s favored her. They played recently at the Miami Open, where Kerber dropped just two games.
4. Can Petra Kvitova steady herself for a third Madrid title?
There’s a lot at stake for Kvitova in Madrid. The defending champion has 1,000 points to defend and the World No.6 could fall out of the Top 10 depending on her results. But Kvitova has shown her propensity to find her best tennis at the tournaments she’s won in the past and there is no clay court more suitable to her flat-hitting style than Madrid.
But will we see that pure flat-hitter this year? It’s not clear.
“We are trying to play a little but more [variety], probably I what showed in Stuttgart,” Kvitova told reporters at All-Access Hour. “Drop shots, slice, these things. He wants me to still play aggressive from the baseline and really push the opponent. That’s what I’m trying.”
5. Is Garbiñe Muguruza poised for a breakout run on home soil?
Yes. Muguruza has shown glimpses of her 2015 run this year but she just hasn’t been able to get that one big win to unlock her confidence and get her on a roll. Her draw in Madrid is set up for her to show her Spanish fans she’s ready to to challenge in Paris.
Muguruza opens against Anna Karolina Schmiedlova, who has struggled to win matches this year. She could then face either Eugenie Bouchard or Irina Camelia-Begu, a possible third round against Karolina Pliskova. From there she could face Simona Halep and Angelique Kerber. That’s a draw that should give her a few matches under her belt before taking a crack at some of the game’s best.
6. Can Simona Halep find her clay-court mojo?
Halep’s season has been a curious one. From her injury and illness affected start to the season, to signs of life on the US hardcourts after making back-to-back quarterfinals in Indian Wells and Miami, only to be derailed by a stressful Fed Cup weekend and early exit from Stuttgart, where she won just three games off Laura Siegemund in the second round. Halep admits she isn’t thinking about titles at the moment. She just wants matches.
“Now I feel ok. I have nothing to defend I’m all good for this next period,” Halep said with a laugh. “I just want to play, to feel again my game on court, to feel confident. I’m just waiting to win matches, if that’s possible again.”
The Romanian’s draw is set up perfectly for her to get those matches. She opens against Misaki Doi and would play either Margarita Gasparyan or Karin Knapp in the second round. From there she could play either Andrea Petkovic or Timea Bacsinszky (the two former French Open semifinalists drew each other in the first round).
7. Which matches did we circle?
Pop your popcorn for these first round clashes:
– Agnieszka Radwanska vs. Dominika Cibulkova
– Caroline Garcia vs. Johanna Konta
– Daria Gavrilova vs. Yulia Putintseva (pictured above, following their 2010 US Open girl’s singles final, won by Gavrilova)
– Petra Kvitova vs. Lara Arruabarrena
– Timea Bacsinszky vs. Andrea Petkovic
– Lucie Safarova vs. CoCo Vandeweghe
– Angelique Kerber vs. Barbora Strycova
Save some of that popcorn for these possible second round clashes:
– Garbiñe Muguruza vs. Eugenie Bouchard
– Sloane Stephens vs. Daria Kasatkina
– Angelique Kerber vs. Madison Keys
– Roberta Vinci vs. Jelena Jankovic
– Petra Kvitova vs. Jelena Ostapenko
Main draw play begins on Saturday.
All photos courtesy of Getty Images.
