Insider Draw Analysis: Miami
1. Can Serena get back to her winning ways in Miami?
It has been an odd start to Serena Williams’ season. On one hand, she is clearly playing at a superior, more consistent level of tennis than her near-historic 2015 season. On the other han,d she has yet to win a title, losing back-to-back finals for the first time since the summer of 2004 – getting nipped at the finish line by Angelique Kerber at the Australian Open and Victoria Azarenka last week at the BNP Paribas Open.
There are legitimate explanations for both losses. Kerber played the match of her life in Melbourne, while the emotions from playing an Indian Wells final for the first time 15 years clearly led to her nervy, tense play against Azarenka. In other words, they weren’t “bad” losses. But they were losses nonetheless, and for a perfectionist like Serena, they were tough to swallow.
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Now she returns to the tournament she has dominated like no other. An eight-time champion at the Miami Open, the familiar surrounds of Crandon Park may just be what Serena needs to get her hands on her first trophy since the Western & Southern Open. She leads the top half of the draw with Petra Kvitova as a potential quarterfinal opponent and Agnieszka Radwanska and Simona Halep – both of whom she beat in Indian Wells – looming as potential semifinal opponents. She opens against either Misaki Doi or Christina McHale.
2. Can Vika go coast-to-coast?
Not since Kim Clijsters in 2005 has a player completed the Indian Wells-Miami double. With her sterling 16-1 record in 2016 – and riding a high after winning Indian Wells – Azarenka has a chance to cap off her resurgent spring hardcourt season if she can win her third Miami title. Drawn into the Spanish Quarter anchored by No.4 Garbiñe Muguruza and last year’s finalist Carla Suárez Navarro, she’ll play either Catherine Bellis or Monica Puig in the second round.
3. Can Simona Halep build on her Indian Wells form?
After a season start marred by injury and illness, Halep looked well on her way to regaining her form in Indian Wells, where she rolled into the quarterfinals without losing a set before bowing out to Serena. The No.5 seed is once again in Serena’s half but landed in Radwanska’s quarter. She could open her tournament against the surging Daria Kasatkina – who is making her Miami Open debut – and could face Sam Stosur and Sloane Stephens before the second week.
If Halep and Radwanska can take care of business in the first week, their projected quarterfinal would be a must-watch clash. Radwanska, the new World No.2, has made the semifinals or better at every tournament she’s played this year.
4. Can Garbiñe Muguruza navigate her tough draw?
The top players will breathe a sigh of relief once Dominika Cibulkova gets her ranking up and is no longer unseeded and looming. The Abierto Mexicano Telcel finalist narrowly lost out to Radwanska in three sets in the second round in Indian Wells and could be Muguruza’s opening round opponent in Miami (Cibulkova opens against Johanna Larsson). From there, the Spaniard’s draw could see her face one of either Kristina Mladenovic, Nicole Gibbs, or Yulia Putintseva, before a potential fourth round match against Victoria Azarenka. That’s a very tricky first week for Garbi.
5. Can Angelique Kerber hit the ground running?
Ranked No.3 but seeded No.2 this week – the draw was conducted before the new rankings came out on Monday – Kerber is about to embark on a stretch of tournaments in April in which she has a load of points to defend on clay. Miami offers her an opportunity to pick up some points to ease that pressure (she lost in the third round last year). The problem for her is she’s on a three-match losing streak, having won just one match at Fed Cup since her Australian Open win.
Kerber could open her tournament against the highest-ranked unseeded woman in the draw in World No.32 Barbora Strycova, who has had a fine start to the season. The Czech veteran beat Muguruza in Australia, made the biggest final of her career at the Dubai Duty Free Championships, and beat Andrea Petkovic en route to the fourth round in Indian Wells, where she retired due to illness. Kerber could also face Indian Wells semifinalist Karolina Pliskova – the pair had two thrilling three-set encounters last year, which Kerber won – with No.7 seed Belinda Bencic a possible Round of 16 opponent.
6. Can the teenagers do more damage?
In addition to main draw entries by Bencic and Kasatkina, the Miami Open awarded wildcards to five teenagers – Naomi Osaka, Sofia Zhuk, Paula Badosa Gibert, Beatriz Haddad Maia, and CiCi Bellis – all of whom are worth keeping an eye on this week.
Bencic is trying to get back on a roll since cracking the Top 10 in February. She’s been drawn into Kerber’s quarter and will play either a qualifier or 18-year-old wildcard Paula Badosa Gibert, the reigning French Open junior champion. Meanwhile, Kasatkina could face Halep in the second round, a fun potential match between two strong clay courters. Also notable: Jelena Ostapenko is the No.1 seed in qualifying. If she makes it through, watch for her placement in the draw.
Japan’s Osaka, 18, faces a qualifier in the first round. Get past that and she would face No.14 seed Sara Errani. At No.104 a win could put her into the Top 100 for the first time.
In addition to Badosa Gibert, another reigning junior champion is in the mix in 16-year-old Zhuk. The feisty Russian won junior Wimbledon last year and will face Zhang Shuai in the first round. Keeping Zhuk company in the 16-and-under category, Bellis will try her luck against Monica Puig in the first round.
Lastly, in the “What are the odds?” match-up of the first round, it’s an all-Brazilian battle between 19-year-old Haddad Maia and the veteran Teliana Pereira.
7. Can Caroline Wozniacki snap out of her slump?
Down to No.25 in the rankings – her lowest since July 2008 – the Dane has yet to get her season into gear. She has beaten just one Top 50 player this season and has taken losses to No.30 Sloane Stephens, No.76 Yulia Putintseva, No.66 Dominika Cibulkova, No.118 Elena Vesnina, No.84 Heather Watson, and No.69 Zhang Shuai.
Drawn into Serena’s quarter, she’ll open against either Vania King or a qualifier, and is projected to face Elina Svitolina and Petra Kvitova before a potential meeting with Serena.
All photos courtesy of Getty Images.
