Agnieszka Radwanska was the top seed in Stuttgart but upset by hometown hero Laura Siegemund in the semifinals. As the top seed in Madrid thanks to Serena Williams’ absence, can Radwanska live up to her lofty standing in the Spanish capital?
Here’s a look at the draw, quarter by quarter.
First quarter: Aga’s tough start
The draw gods were unkind to Radwanska, who has never been shy to admit that clay isn’t her favorite surface. Her opener comes against fellow Grand Slam finalist Dominika Cibulkova, also a former French Open quarterfinalist in the midst of rebuilding her ranking. When Radwanska and Cibulkova met in Indian Wells, it turned into a nearly three-hour classic edged by the former.
If she passes that difficult test, Aussie Open semifinalist Johanna Konta or Caroline Garcia — who likes to play on clay and seems to thrive in an underdog role — awaits. Her potential third-round foe? Well, it could be 2012 French Open finalist Sara Errani. Should we keep going?
Svetlana Kuznetsova not only reached the final in Miami but was last year’s finalist in Madrid; Radwanska and Kuznetsova might tangle in the quarterfinals. Kuznetsova will be hoping the thigh injury she sustained in Prague is nothing serious.
Prediction: Cibulkova
Second quarter: Vika and the defending champion
Victoria Azarenka can play on clay, no question. But would the Belorussian have taken an extension to the hard-court swing? Maybe. She is riding a 15-match winning streak, dropping a measly four sets in the process. Azarenka became just the third women’s player to achieve the Sunshine Double, too. Given all of her success in 2016, you’d be forgiven for forgetting that there was heartbreak for Azarenka in Madrid 12 months ago. Three match points came and went against Williams, one of a trio of close matches she lost to her pal in a span of two and a half months.
Azarenka’s journey this year starts against Laura Robson, and in the second round another player returning from injury, Alizé Cornet, could feature versus the two-time Slam champ. A possible clash between Azarenka and defending champion Petra Kvitova looms in the quarterfinals.
Besides thriving in the quicker conditions in Madrid, Kvitova is sure to be buoyed by her performance in Stuttgart. Kvitova fell to eventual champion Angelique Kerber — but it was a high-quality contest between the lefties.
Prediction: Azarenka
Third quarter: Halep’s revival?
In 2013, Simona Halep needed a wildcard to play in Madrid. Those days are long gone. She doesn’t need wildcards anymore. But it isn’t the best of times for Halep. Injuries – and coming back from them – have proved to be, somewhat predictably, problematic. She sits 29th in the Road to Singapore standings. Could Madrid, where Halep made the final in 2014, mark a revival? Halep appears to have a nice path to the third round, although if the confidence is low and the body still not at 100%, the likes of Misaki Doi and Margarita Gasparyan shouldn’t be discounted.
Should she progress to that third round, Timea Bacsinszky could surface, and the Swiss ousted Halep in Miami. Garbiñe Muguruza finds herself at 35th in the Road to Singapore, going through a similar struggle as the Romanian. Muguruza, projected to play Halep in the quarterfinals, starts against Anna Karolina Schmiedlova. Schmiedlova broke through in 2015 but the Slovak can’t buy a win at the moment (199th in the Road).
Yet another younger player seeking an upturn, Eugenie Bouchard, might confront Muguruza in the second round. Karolina Pliskova, however, is the form player of the section.
Prediction: Pliskova
Fourth quarter: Surging Kerber
She was already a Grand Slam winner, but Kerber achieved a significant feat in Stuttgart: For the first time in her career, the 28-year-old successfully defended a title. Not only did Kerber repeat, but she did so in style, playing sizzling tennis from the quarterfinals onwards.
Now Kerber’s task is to put aside Stuttgart and refocus on Madrid. Last year, fresh off her success at home, Kerber fell in her opener. Mind you, it was an especially difficult pairing — with 2010 French Open finalist Samantha Stosur. The versatile Barbora Strycova – a loser to Stosur in Prague this week – is Kerber’s foe on this occasion. Strycova is certainly no slouch.
Madison Keys, Sloane Stephens or Daria Kasatkina, a trio from the younger guard, may line up against Kerber in the ensuing rounds. Kerber and Keys have already met five times, with the elder of the two holding a 4-1 advantage. Lucie Safarova picked up a maiden 2016 win in Prague this week and hasn’t stopped, making the final in her home country. Safarova and Carla Suarez Navarro – one of Kerber’s victims in Stuttgart – are on a collision course in the third round.
Prediction: Kerber
Semifinals: Azarenka, Kerber
Winner: Azarenka
