Insider Debates: Who Will Win In Doha
Courtney Nguyen, Point: For the second straight season, Carla Suárez Navarro has started the year by playing her best tennis. And yet, 2016 feels different. The Spaniard was the most consistent player in the first half of 2015, making the quarterfinals or better at 10 of her first 11 tournaments. Yet she had no titles to show for it, and most importantly, she struggled mightily at the majors. She lost in the first round of three of the four majors.
With her dominant 6-2, 6-0 win over World No.3 Agnieszka Radwanska, Suárez Navarro has backed up yet another strong start and is one win away from the biggest title of her career at the Qatar Total Open. Her run in Doha comes off a great January, which saw her make the semifinals at the Brisbane International and the quarterfinals of the Australian Open. With a more aggressive mindset and renewed calm – she has been working with a sports psychologist – the Canary Islands native has reversed her trend and is now finding her best tennis at the sport’s biggest events.
On Monday she will rise to a career-high ranking at No.6, just one spot short of her pre-season goal of cracking the Top 5. If she wins the title she will rise to No.2 in the Road to Singapore behind Australian Open champion Angelique Kerber.
As the women around her fell to upset, Suárez Navarro has been been workmanlike in her effort and consistency. She has not dropped a set in her four matches, with wins over Donna Vekic, Timea Bacsinszky, Elena Vesnina, and Radwanska. Not even a scary fall late in the first set against Radwanska could derail her.
But she goes from being largely overlooked at the start of the week, to the underdog in her semifinal, to the overwhelming favorite in Saturday’s final. Suárez Navarro is the first to admit that the nerves can get to her in the big occasions. With 18-year-old Jelena Ostapenko playing her first Premier final on Saturday, Suárez Navarro is the one with the experience. Just last year she made finals at the Miami Open and Italian Open.
But unlike the rest of the women Ostapenko stunned this week, Suárez Navarro knows exactly what to expect against the Latvian. Ostapenko steamrolled her last year in the first round at Wimbledon, 6-2, 6-0, in a loss that sent the Spaniard reeling for the remainder of the season.
“She played really fast, really fast,” Suárez Navarro told reporters in Doha. “She knows how to play tennis. She play also solid here this week, I saw her. But in the final, you never know what going to be happen. A lot of emotions, nervous sometimes. Will be tough.”
“I need to be ready, because I know how she plays. If she plays good, will be tough for me.”
I don’t put much stock in that Wimbledon loss. A junior Wimbledon champion, Ostapenko’s game is well suited for grass and fast surfaces, while it is by far the Spaniard’s worst surface. The Spaniard also came into that tournament exhausted from the first six months of the season. It’s a different story this week.
This is no gimme for Suárez Navarro, but she’s shown no sign of weakness all tournament. In fact, she’s played better and better with every match. Against Radwanska, she held her position on the baseline with ease and took the ball clean and early. As she told the crowd afterwards, she was feeling the ball good. She could put the ball wherever she wanted.
Ostapenko offers a completely different challenge. She hits a big flat ball. She’s far more offensive-minded than Radwanska and the depth and weight of her shot can push her opponents off the baseline. She also can struggle with consistency and rack up errors quickly. If Suárez Navarro can play her game and move Ostapenko deep into the corners, she should be able to outsteady her more erratic opponent.
David Kane, Counterpoint: Jelena Ostapenko came to Doha having won just one main draw match since reaching her first WTA final at the Coupe Banque Nationale in September. Two players out of the main draw, the 18-year-old Latvian was merely gearing herself up for another bout of qualifying at the start of the week.
“First, it was like second round of qualies, and I was just really happy that I got main draw,” she said on Friday. “In my first match, I was just trying to play my best tennis. Match by match, I played better and better.”
Elevating her game for some stiff opposition, Ostapenko earned back-to-back wins over Svetlana Kuznetsova and No.5 seed Petra Kvitova.
“I beat some players in the Top 10, some Grand Slam champions, as well. I get confidence from that. I’m able to see that I can also play on that level.
“It’s better for me because with every match I get more and more confident.”
She outhit Zheng Saisai in the quarterfinals and refused to buckle in the semis, even as she fell behind 5-1 in the first set against Andrea Petkovic. Narrowly losing some tight early games to the German, Ostapenko found her range off her booming forehand – one reminiscent of Ana Ivanovic or even Anna Kournikova – just as her opponent began to struggle with a left thigh injury, retiring after losing seven games in a row.
“I was just trying to stay consistent and to not miss easy balls, because she was playing amazing in the first set. I was just trying to fight for every point and I think it helped me.
“I feel pity for Andrea that she couldn’t finish the match. I hope she recovers better. After when she’s in a good form, we can have a great match.”
Unafraid of big stages, she won main draw matches in her Grand Slam main draw debuts at Wimbledon and the US Open, trouncing Suárez Navarro, 6-2, 6-0, at the former.
“It was a great match for me because it was my first win against a Top 10 player, and grass is my favorite surface. I felt really good there.
“She’s playing really great this week. It’s going to be a tough match tomorrow.”
Her run in Doha already guarantees her of a Top 50 debut, joining fellow 18-year-olds Belinda Bencic and Daria Kasatkina – the largest cohort of teens since 2009. While Bencic and Kasatkina rely more on consistency, Ostapenko is a streaky player, and has been on one heck of a streak in Qatar, dropping just one set in five matches.
Playing one of the biggest matches of her career, she can certainly hit through the Spanish veteran – proving as much at the All England Club – and so the question will be whether the young Latvian will be able to hold her nerve and keep control of her powerhouse game.
As bluntly precise in press as she is on the court, the youngster sees things even more simply.
“I will try to show my best tennis.”
All photos courtesy of Getty Images.