Let’s be clear about one thing: While Roger Federer would welcome a thoroughly unexpected return to the top of the Emirates ATP Rankings, he has no interest in grinding his way back to World No. 1.

At 35, No. 1 is not the priority. Physically and mentally, it can’t be. Winning Grand Slams and ATP World Tour Masters 1000 titles, leading a balanced family life and staying healthy and motivated is what’s most important to the Swiss, who holds the record for spending 302 weeks at the top spot.

Andre Agassi (33 years, 4 months) was the oldest man to reign as World No. 1. Federer, who was last No. 1 in October 2012, would be more than two years older than the American should he reclaim top spot later this year.

After sweeping the March Masters at the BNP Paribas Open and Miami Open presented by Itau, Federer said that he would likely shut it down this month and next before returning for Roland Garros (beginning 28 May). Currently 1,810 points clear of second-placed Rafael Nadal in the calendar-year Emirates ATP Race To London (a predictor of the year-end rankings), Federer’s sabbatical will see the Spaniard cut or possibly wipe out the Swiss’ lead in the Race during the clay swing.

ESPN analyst Brad Gilbert, a former World No. 4 and a winner of 20 titles, says, “Right now Fed’s got a better than 50 percent chance of finishing the year No. 1. When you look at how far Djoker and Murray are behind, I think it’s going to come down to Roger and Rafa.

“Roger has finished the year No. 1 five times and in four of those five times he’s left Miami first in the Race. He told me after the match that he’s not 24 anymore and that possibly he’ll only play the French. That’s three Masters 1000s out of the way, but he can finish No. 1 if he wins one of the last three majors, which is certainly possible. He belongs on the Mt. Rushmore of the seven greatest athletes of all time, along with Michael Jordan and Tom Brady.”

Federer told Gilbert and ESPN viewers on court that he was “focussing on the French, the grass and then the hard courts is going to be the key for me. And if things happen for World No. 1 that would be great, but I still believe I’m a long way away.”

Later, in his press conference, Federer expanded on his goals for the rest of the season, saying, “Wimbledon has to be the biggest goal… but all of the grass really is important to me because I’ll play Stuttgart and Halle there, too. Then of course I am looking very good for the [ATP] Finals, for the year-end championships, where I’ve been very successful. I like the indoors as well. So for me basically the second half of the season is a big priority now. That’s why I’ll take a break.”

Federer has opened a significant gap on the rest of the field in the Emirates ATP Race To London after winning the three biggest titles so far this year: The Australian Open and ATP World Tour Masters 1000s in Indian Wells and Miami. At the beginning of the season it looked like Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray would battle each other for No. 1, especially after they played an epic final in Doha in the first week of the season.

But unpredictability is one of the beauties of sport, and after a stunning first quarter of the season that no one saw coming, Murray (840 points) is 12th in the Race, 3,205 points adrift of Federer, and Djokovic (475) is 22nd, 3,570 points behind the Swiss. With Federer (4,045) first and Nadal (2,235) second, it feels more like 2007 than 2017.

Except for one thing: Gilbert believes Federer is playing better today than 10 years ago.

“I’ve been watching Roger since 1998 and in my humble opinion he is playing better tennis than at any point in his career,” Gilbert says. “He’s been forced to get better and he’s had to raise his backhand and return of serve. He’s playing more complete tennis. I look at the numbers and sometimes when something goes up, something goes down.  But Roger’s breaking five per cent more while still holding 90 per cent of the time. And he’s converting 50 per cent of break points.”

Federer is determined that another key measure – his fitness – also remains in positive territory, hence his decision to embark on an extended break now. “I’m not 24 anymore. I have to pick my moments where I can peak and stay healthy,” Federer said in his presser.

“At the end of the day, I need to look out for my health, that I’m happy in all parts of my life, personal, private, on-court life, professional life, and I can’t keep this pace up on every single day. Just too much and I’ll run out. The desire will run out.

“I would rather take a step back and then really come back with a lot of energy and happiness. Then I can share that with everybody. Otherwise you’ll see me here and you will see that all I want to do is get out of here. I don’t want to be that guy. I really don’t.”

It took three months, three “Big Titles” and a 19-1 start to the 2017 season, but Roger Federer has officially declared the “comeback” portion of his season finished. The 35 year old, who took five months off last year to rest his surgically repaired left knee, made the announcement after dominating another ATP World Tour Masters 1000 final on Sunday for his third Miami Open presented by Itau title.

“The comeback is over,” Federer said. “I’m happy that nothing major happened throughout this period. It’s been a dream run on the court, off the court as well. My body has reacted very well and I couldn’t be happier, of course.”

Federer captured his 26^th career Masters 1000 crown by beating Rafael Nadal 6-3, 6-4 in the South Florida sun. The Swiss also claimed his third “Sunshine Double” after winning the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells last month. Federer has now won 11 consecutive matches and is 7-0 against Top 10 players in 2017.

Few, including Federer, would have predicted such a fast start three months ago when he began his comeback Down Under. All kinds of questions surrounded Federer, as he reminded on Sunday.

“Let’s see how the knee is going to feel in Australia. How is the body going to be in the Middle East? How is the body going to be West Coast, East Coast?” Federer said, tracking his season, which started at the Australian Open, then went to Dubai and then Indian Wells and most recently Miami. “There is a lot of traveling, and the knee can act funny when you travel and fly transatlantic and all that stuff. It’s not like I went home and all I did is take a warm shower. I had to do a lot of stretching, massage, and sleep well… I needed to be very professional to wake up every morning and be ready to compete.”

Federer, who tore his meniscus in his left knee in January 2016, began this season with modest goals. “I told Severin, my coach, when I was warming up if I would have just played the Miami finals, no Indian Wells, no Australian Open, we would still be very happy right now,” Federer said. “But I have way more.”

For Federer, winning begets winning. The confidence he earned from his earlier titles in Australia and Indian Wells during his “comeback” helped him in Miami and against Nadal, whom he was playing for the 37^th time in their FedEx ATP Head2Head rivalry.

“You win a big tournament like the Australian Open, or any big tournament for that matter, you can just bank on some confidence. That confidence gets you through a lot of the tough matches that nobody ever speaks about again,” Federer said.

In the third round, Federer beat Juan Martin del Potro to reach the Round of 16. There, he survived two tight tie-break sets against Roberto Bautista Agut to make it to the quarter-finals.

In the last eight, Federer had to save two match points to outlast Tomas Berdych 7-6(6) in the third set. In the semi-finals, Federer again came through in a third-set tie-break, beating Aussie Nick Kyrgios 7-6(5) in the decider. For the tournament, Federer was 6-1 in sets that ended in tie-breaks.

“I think I am definitely profiting from confidence, and then also from the right mindset. [I’m] able to compress all my energy into one single match and not be distracted by everything else going on around me,” Federer said.

Against Nadal, the Swiss star again focused on the match in front of him. “I was trying to remind myself just to play without pressure. Just do it one more time and go out there and be brave on the big points. I think I was able to do that,” Federer said. “I think it’s been a challenging four weeks because you have to be focused for a long time. I was able to do that and I’m very happy.”

Federer now plans to take an extended break before playing Roland Garros and a full grass-court schedule.

Re-live eight great hot shots from the BNP Paribas Open and Miami Open presented by Itau, and help crown the Golden Hot Shot from the season’s first two ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments.

Watch the clips and cast your vote before the poll closes at 6pm CEST/noon EDT on Friday, 7 April. Here are the candidates:

Indian Wells
Del Potro Lands Tweener
Djokovic Quick Hands
Cuevas Left Bloodied & Bruised
Soares Goes Behind The Back

Miami
Federer Soft Hands
Nadal Laces Passing Shot
Kyrigos Hits Between The Legs Winner
Verdasco Rifles Mammoth Forehand

Subscribe to our Hot Shot playlist, and watch match replays on TennisTV.

Never compromise what makes you great.

Roger Federer defeated Rafael Nadal 6-3, 6-4 in a close Miami Open presented by Itau final, with Federer’s forehand serving as the difference maker. Nadal’s forehand, on the other hand, failed to have its usual impact in the match, primarily because he was not as committed to hitting it as much as he normally is – especially as the first shot after the serve.

With Federer winning their past three matches, it’s understandable that Nadal was looking for variations and creases to his normal strategy. It’s smart to look for counter moves, offer different looks and to try to rattle the cage in Federer’s mind. But ultimately, Nadal adjusted too far and strategically lost his way. His forehand got lost in the shuffle.

Nadal normally hits a forehand around 80 per cent of the time after his serve and wins approximately 65 per cent of those points. It’s without question the engine room.

But in this final, Nadal hit forehands as his first shot after the serve exactly 50 per cent (22/44) of the time, drastically down from his career average. It may be as low as he has ever been in this strategic area on such a big stage.

Nadal Serve +1

• Serve +1 forehands = 50% (22/44)

• Serve +1 forehand win percentage = 55% (12/22)

• Serve +1 backhand win percentage = 41% (9/22)

As you would expect, Nadal won a higher percentage of Serve +1 forehands (55 per cent to 41 per cent). The last time Nadal defeated Federer was in the semi-final of the 2014 Australian Open. In that match, Nadal hit 73 per cent (45/62) Serve +1 forehands, winning a dominant 69 per cent (31/45) of those points. It’s that important, and then some.

Nadal is normally locked onto hitting Serve +1 forehands. For example, when he defeated Stan Wawrinka 6-3, 6-2 in the 2015 ATP Finals, Nadal hit a Serve +1 forehand 89 per cent of the time (33/37).

The Spaniard normally loves to blast forehands through Federer’s backhand. But the 2017 version of Federer’s backhand is like nothing Nadal has ever seen, and in the process of adjusting to it, other parts of Nadal’s game have suffered. Federer, on the other hand, dictated throughout the Miami final with his Serve +1 strategy, hitting a forehand after the serve 82 per cent of the time.

Federer Serve +1

• Serve +1 forehands = 82% (32/39)

• Serve + 1 forehand win percentage = 63% (20/32)

• Serve +1 backhand win percentage = 71% (5/7)

Federer got to play in his comfort zone, racking up 19 forehand winners to Nadal’s eight.

Serve Location

Nadal also went with secondary serve patterns much more than usual. It used to feel like Nadal directed 100 per cent of his serves at Federer’s backhand, but in this match Federer actually hit more forehand returns (34) than backhands (26).

Of the 26 backhand returns Federer hit, he came over 24 of them, only slicing two because of the quality of Nadal’s delivery. Federer’s backhand return found Nadal’s Serve +1 backhand eight times, while 14 went to the forehand, and four were return errors. Federer’s new and improved backhand return is clearly wrecking havoc with Nadal’s Serve +1 forehand intentions.

Federer stuck with his typical serve patterns, making Nadal hit 68 per cent (38/56) backhand returns for the match. In the deuce court, Nadal typically serves down the middle against Federer, but the Spaniard landed only five serves there, winning two of those points. By comparison, Nadal made 12 first serves out wide to Federer’s forehand, winning just 50 per cent (6/12).

In the ad court, Nadal won a healthy 80 per cent (8/10) of his first serves out wide. The left-hander won 53 per cent (9/17) serving at the body in the deuce court and 67 per cent (8/12) in the ad court.

With Nadal serving at 3-4, 30/40 in the second set, with the match squarely on the line, he hit an 89 mph second serve at Federer’s backhand. The Swiss stepped into the court and hit a backhand return down the line to Nadal’s backhand. Nadal missed four Serve +1 backhands for the match, including this one, and Federer would serve the match out in the following game.

Nadal will ultimately look back at the four break points he didn’t convert in the opening set as key moments that could have led to victory. One thing is for certain. Nadal must get back to doing what makes him so great against Federer. Nadal’s forehand has more to do with the lopsided 23-14 scoreline he owns in their FedEx ATP Head2Head rivalry than basically everything else combined.

On Sunday, Roger Federer put the rest of the ATP World Tour on notice, claiming his third title of the season at the Miami Open presented by Itau.

Federer’s run of dominance has been arguably the biggest storyline in 2017, but the Swiss does not stand alone. Despite falling 6-3, 6-4, Rafael Nadal is tied with his longtime rival atop the match wins leaderboard and after a strong fortnight in Miami, he says he is ready to challenge for big titles once again. The Spaniard believes his deep run at the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 event is representative of his resurgent form.

“I think I am close to where I need to be,” said Nadal. “I am at a very high level of tennis and I believe I am ready to win these titles. I already played three finals this year and today I lost to a player that had lost only one match.”

Two weeks ago, Federer was at his ruthless best against Nadal in Indian Wells, dropping just five games. On Sunday, the Miami final yielded the same outcome, but Nadal admits that it was a completely different match.

With both competitors surging to Top 5 returns in the Emirates ATP Rankings, the Spaniard, who will rise two spots to World No. 5, is looking to build on the momentum in the weeks and months to come. 

“For me, it was a much closer result than the result says and completely different than last week,” Nadal added. “I have been playing well during the whole event. It was a positive tournament for me obviously. A lot of [Emirates ATP Rankings] points, a lot of confidence for the most important part of the season for me that’s just in two weeks.”

FedEx ATP Win/Loss Index (2017)

Nadal was bidding to claim his first Miami title in his fifth final appearance and join Andre Agassi as the only players to win ATP World Tour Masters 1000 titles in their teens, 20s and 30s. 

The 30 year old next turns his attention to his most successful stretch of the year, as the European clay-court swing is set to commence in two weeks at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters. Following an impressive run on the North American hard courts, reaching the final in Acapulco, Round of 16 in Indian Wells and final in Miami, Nadal is confident for a strong run on his favourite surface. 

“I’m playing enough well to fight for everything I think. I have good hopes that I going to be ready for Monte-Carlo. Always when I am playing that well, on clay it helps a little bit more for me. I need to work hard to be ready for that. If I am ready for that, I think I am very excited about playing on clay again.

“I think about resting a little bit, having fun a little bit in Mallorca and I’ll be happy to be back home after one-and-a-half months. Then I will start working hard on clay. That’s my goal now. My goal is to feel ready to play on clay again and I know if I have good preparation and have a healthy transition to the clay and find my rhythm on clay, I can be one of those candidates.”

Nadal will seek to make history on the clay, vying to become the first player to win 10 titles at a single tour-level event. He currently owns nine each in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona and Roland Garros. 

Roger In Hunt To Reclaim No. 1, But Health Comes First

Roger Federer continues his stunning start to 2017 by winning the Miami Open presented by Itau over Rafael Nadal. The win marks his first Miami title and third “Sunshine Double” (2005-2006), in addition to his third winner’s trophy of the year.

The Swiss star remains on top in the Emirates ATP Race to London and holds a convincing lead over his rivals. Having accumulated 4,045 Emirates ATP Rankings Points so far in 2017, he leads No. 2 Rafael Nadal by well over 1,500 points and has more than doubled the points of everyone else on the ATP World Tour.  With Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray struggling with injuries and form over the past month, they’ll both have significant ground to make up during the clay-court season.

But while Federer remains in good stead to reclaim the top spot in the Emirates ATP Rankings, he won’t be playing every week to accomplish this goal. At 35 years old, Federer has said he intends to play a sensible schedule in order to remain healthy and maximise his opportunities at the world’s biggest events. If he is to reclaim the top spot, it likely won’t happen until the second half of 2017.

Kyrgios Could Be Making Bid For London

Gone are the days when Nick Kyrgios would follow up a big win with a surprising loss. The Aussie has remained consistently consistent in 2017, reaching the semi-finals in three of his past four events. His final four showing in Miami was highlighted by one of the finest matches this year, when he came within two points of beating Federer before narrowly losing 7-6(9), 6-7(9), 7-6(5).

The run of form since Australia leaves Kyrgios just outside the Top 8 in the Emirates ATP Race to London. Showing improved mental fortitude, he is bringing his best tennis to every match he plays, regardless of crowd size or opponent. If Kyrgios can continue to keep up his current level of focus, he will be a strong contender to qualify for the ATP Finals.

Zverev Clear Leader Of Next Gen ATP Pack

Alexander Zverev holds a dominant lead over his young rivals in the inaugural Emirates ATP Race to Milan. The 19-year-old German ousted top seed Stan Wawrinka in the fourth-round in Miami before losing to Kyrgios in a match filled with huge hitting and displays of emotion.

Perhaps the most encouraging sign for Zverev fans is that he excels on all surfaces. He reached his first ATP World Tour final on clay last May in Nice (l. Thiem), defeated Federer the following month to replicate that effort on grass in Halle (l. Mayer) and then lifted his first winner’s trophy in September on the indoor courts of St. Petersburg (d. Wawrinka). Currently inside the Top 20 of the Emirates ATP Rankings, Zverev has proven he has all the tools to continue climbing.

Fognini Thriving Against Top Players

After posting a tame 5-5 record in the first two months of 2017, Fabio Fognini came alive in the U.S. After scoring a Top 10 win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Indian Wells, the 29 year old defeated second seed Kei Nishikori to reach the semi-finals in Miami before losing to Nadal. This fortnight marked Fognini’s first ATP World Tour Masters 1000 semi-final on hard courts.

Fognini has long proven he is capable of beating the world’s best, but doing so in back-to-back events shows he could be enjoying a late surge in his career. Expect the Italian to score a few more big scalps during the upcoming clay-court season.

Kontinen Becomes New Doubles No. 1

Henri Kontinen will make history for Finland by securing the top spot in the Emirates ATP Doubles Rankings on Monday. The 26 year old has enjoyed outstanding success with John Peers, finishing 2016 by winning the Paris Masters and ATP Finals, and opening this year by prevailing at the Australian Open for their first Grand Slam title.

Kudos also goes to Lukasz Kubot and Marcelo Melo, who defeated Nicholas Monroe and Jack Sock to take the doubles title in Miami. After starting the year with a 4-5 record, they regrouped strongly by finishing runner-up in Indian Wells (l. Klaasen/Ram) before their latest success.