No. 6 Juan Martin del Potro, +2
The Argentinean continues his rise up the ATP Rankings with his first ATP World Tour Masters 1000 crown at the BNP Paribas Open. The 29-year-old saved three match points to beat Roger Federer in a thrilling Indian Wells final and moved up two spots to No. 6, his highest position since 24 February 2014 (No. 5). He also passed 400 match wins with victory over Milos Raonic in the semi-finals. Read & Watch Final Highlights

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The former World No. 4 is also in good shape for a place at the Nitto ATP Finals, to be held at The O2 in London from 11-18 November 2018, for the first time since 2013. Del Potro has a 17-3 match record this year, including two titles from finals (22 tour-level trophies overall), and is No. 2 in the year-to-date ATP Race To London behind Federer. Del Potro has made four appearances at the season finale (7-8 record), highlighted by a run to the 2009 title match (l. to Davydenko).

No. 10 (Career High) Lucas Pouille, +2
The Frenchman has broken into the Top 10 of the ATP Rankings for the first time at No. 10 after a strong start to 2018 that includes a 1-2 record in finals. Pouille came within one victory of the Top 10 at the recent Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, but lost to Roberto Bautista Agut in the title match.

No. 14 Sam Querrey, +7
The 30-year-old American jumped six positions to No. 14 in the ATP Rankings, three places off his career-high of No. 11 (26 February 2018), after reaching the BNP Paribas Open quarter-finals (l. to Raonic). Querrey has an 0-4 record in ATP World Tour Masters 1000 quarter-finals. Read: Querrey – My Masters 1000

No. 25 Milos Raonic, +13
The Canadian and former World No. 3, who continues to recover from a series of injury, moved up 13 places to No. 25 after advancing to his third semi-final (or better) in four years at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. Raonic, who on 26 February this year was ranked No. 40, reached the 2016 final (l. to Djokovic).

No. 36 Borna Coric, +13
With a new team and renewed focus, the 21-year-old Croatian beat No. 9-ranked Kevin Anderson en route to the Indian Wells semi-finals, his first at Masters 1000-level, where he lost to Roger Federer in three sets. Coric, now 11-4 on the year, moved up 13 positions to No. 36 – three places off his career-high of No. 33 on 27 July 2015.

Other Notable Top 100 Movers This Week
No. 23 (Career High) Hyeon Chung, +3
No. 31 Philipp Kohlschreiber, +6
No. 52 Daniil Medvedev, +5
No. 60 (Career High) Marton Fucsovics, +5
No. 75 Mirza Basic, +7
No. 81 Pierre-Hugues Herbert, +12
No. 82 Marcos Baghdatis, +20
No. 83 Mikhail Kukushkin, +6
No. 87 Nicolas Kicker, +7
No. 90 Jeremy Chardy, +10
No. 92 Dudi Sela, +5
No. 95 (Career High) Matteo Berrettini, +13
No. 97 Marco Cecchinato, +10

The paradox of tennis is that our minds quickly dismiss the short points, but they are by far the most influential to the final outcome.

Juan Martin Del Potro defeated Roger Federer 6-4, 6-7(8), 7-6(2) to win the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells on Sunday by forging his winning advantage in the abundant short rallies in the match. He won the short, lost the long, and emerged the victor, saving three match points along the way.

Fans all over the world that tuned in to watch this instant classic will no doubt enjoy discussing the extended, bruising baseline exchanges from these two heavy hitters. But the reality of this battle, lasting two hours and 42 minutes, was that only seven per cent (16 points) of rallies reached double digits – and Del Potro actually lost that battle.

Rally Length – Points Won

0-4 Shots (65% total points)
Del Potro = 80 won
Federer = 67 won

5-9 Shots (28% total points)
Del Potro = 34 won
Federer = 28 won

10+ Shots (7% total points)
Del Potro = 6 won
Federer = 10 won

Just 10 per cent of Del Potro’s total points through six matches reached double digits in rally length. Our eyes certainly don’t pick up that 90 per cent of all his points had either Del Potro or his opponent hitting a maximum of just five consecutive shots in the court.

Del Potro – Six Match Total
0-4 Shots = 539 points (59%)
5-9 Shots = 282 points (31%)
10+ Shots = 89 points (10%)

In the final against Federer, Del Potro crafted a 13-point advantage in the 0-4 rally length, and a six-point advantage in the mid-length rallies of 5-9 shots. The Argentinian actually lost the long rallies six to 10, but with so few of them played, it didn’t hurt to lose that category.

Overall for the tournament, Del Potro’s winning margin (points won minus points lost) was the most abundant in the ‘first strike’ rally length of 0-4 shots.

Del Potro – Six Match Total
0-4 Shots = 292 won / 247 lost. Margin = +45 points
5-9 Shots = 152 won / 130 lost. Margin = +22 points
10+ Shots = 51 won / 38 lost. Margin = +13 points

The Final Stanza: Federer Serving Third Set 5-4, 40/15
The match looked to be all but over with Federer serving at 5-4, 40/15 in the final set. It seemed imminent that there would be just one more point to be played, but instead, there would be another 26, and it would be Del Potro that would win 65 per cent (17/26) of them.

From 5-4, 40/15 in the third set, Federer only made 31 per cent (5/16) of his first serves and would hit two double faults in the tie-break. He also went for two backhand drop shots serving at 5-4. which uncharacteristically felt like a reach for the finish line.

From 5-4, 40/15, Federer’s forehand also went awry. He committed six forehand errors, including one return, while contributing just one forehand return winner. While Federer struggled mightily to find the court with the match on the line, Del Potro was finding another level. The Argentinian hit three forehand winners and three backhand winners (including one return), while committing just six total groundstroke and return errors to Federer’s nine.

Winning doesn’t happen evenly all over the court as much we think. Win the battle of the abundant short points, and the much smaller pool of longer points can quite often be a loss and not be detrimental to the final outcome.

A LOOK BACK
Challenger Banque Nationale de Drummondville (Drummondville, Canada): Denis Kudla is back in the winners’ circle after nearly three years, claiming the trophy at the ATP Challenger Tour event in Drummondville on Sunday. Kudla marched to the title with a 6-0, 7-5 victory over France’s Benjamin Bonzi, prevailing after just 64 minutes. The American converted five of six break opportunities to take his sixth Challenger crown and first since 2015.

It has been a strong start to 2018 for Kudla, who kicked off his campaign with a second round run as a qualifier at the Australian Open. He would also reach the semi-finals at the $125,000 event in Dallas. With his title in Drummondville, he vaults 24 spots in the ATP Rankings to a Top 150 return at No. 144.

Moreover, Kudla’s victory gives the United States its fourth title on the ATP Challenger Tour this year. He joins Noah Rubin (Noumea), Taylor Fritz (Newport Beach) and Dennis Novikov (Morelos).

First #ATPChallenger title in three years. @deniskudla celebrated a return to the winners’ circle on Sunday in Drummondville.

?️ @JournalExpress pic.twitter.com/AnB5lmFafI

— ATP Challenger Tour (@ATPChallenger) March 19, 2018

Irving Tennis Classic (Irving, Texas, U.S.A.): One year after finishing runner-up in Irving, Mikhail Kukushkin went one step further at the prestigious $150,000 event. The Kazakh defeated Matteo Berrettini 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 in Sunday’s final, capping a dominant week that saw the World No. 83 defeat Americans Jared Donaldson, Bjorn Fratangelo and Steve Johnson en route to the title match.

The title is Kukushkin’s 14th on the ATP Challenger Tour, but his first in North America. The 30-year-old was defeated by Aljaz Bedene in last year’s Irving final.

“I’m really excited,” said Kukushkin. “This is my second year in a row in the final and this time I won. I definitely like this place. I love being here in Dallas at the Four Seasons. I love playing here, with the amazing facilities and I’m very happy with the way I played and the fact that I won.”

Meanwhile, former Top 10 doubles players Philipp Petzschner and Alexander Peya teamed up to win their seventh title together. The German-Austrian duo stunned reigning Nitto ATP Finals champs Henri Kontinen and John Peers in straight sets in the first round.

“The whole week has been a pleasure for me,” said Petzschner. “This is my second home in Dallas. I love this tournament. Thanks to everyone who helped out and hopefully I can come back for a couple more years.”

Pingshan Open (Shenzhen, China): Seventh seed Ilya Ivashka notched his second ATP Challenger Tour title, prevailing on the hard courts of Shenzhen on Sunday. The Belarusian ousted home hope Zhang Ze 6-4, 6-2, capping a dominant week of tennis that saw him breeze to the title without dropping a set.

Ivashka, who crashed onto the ATP World Tour scene with a semi-final run at the Open 13 in Marseille last month, is up to No. 122 in the ATP Rankings – the highest-ranked player from Belarus. The rise of the European nation was one of the biggest storylines on the ATP Challenger Tour in 2017, with three players combining to post a 6-0 record in finals.

“I am very happy and excited to win the title here in Shenzhen,” said Ivashka. “I love this tournament and I want to thank all the people who helped me during the week.”

It’s a second #ATPChallenger ? for Ilya Ivashka, prevailing in Shenzhen 64 62 over Zhang Ze.

? career-high No. 122 pic.twitter.com/9Vkd2RAdLa

— ATP Challenger Tour (@ATPChallenger) March 18, 2018

A LOOK AHEAD
A pair of tournaments are welcomed to the ATP Challenger Tour, with Lille, France and Qujing, China celebrating inaugural editions. Nicolas Mahut is the top seed in Lille, while Malek Jaziri leads the field in Qujing. Ivashka, seeded third, looks to go back-to-back on Chinese soil.