Why Djokovic's legendary return will be critical in his pursuit of a 25th Grand Slam
Novak Djokovic is widely regarded as one of the best returners in tennis history. The Serbian has won a higher percentage of return games than any active player and has put the best servers under pressure throughout his career.
The 38-year-old will need to bring his very best returning to Rod Laver Arena on Friday evening if he hopes to snap a five-match losing streak against two-time defending champion Jannik Sinner.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis shows that the return — long one of the Serbian’s greatest strengths — has been where he has struggled against Sinner in their recent showdowns.
The Italian leads their Lexus ATP Head2Head series 6-4, including five straight victories dating back to Sinner’s Davis Cup victory in November 2023. The No. 2 player in the PIF ATP Rankings can become the first player to win six consecutive tour-level matches against Djokovic.
But the 10-time Australian Open champion can make a good start in fending off that history by relying on his trademark return. During his losing streak against Sinner, the 24-time major champion has not broken serve more than twice in a match and in two of his defeats, he did not earn a break point.
Djokovic has broken twice from eight chances across 61 return games in his past four meetings with Sinner, winning just 3.3 per cent of his return games in those encounters. That is a far cry from the Serbian’s longtime excellence on return.
Djokovic has proven to hold the Kryptonite for the best servers in the world throughout the years. Entering the Australian Open, Djokovic had won 31.6 per cent of return games for his career, the seventh-best mark on record. From 2009 through 2021, the 101-time tour-level titlist won at least 30 per cent of his return games each season, including an astonishing 38.8 per cent in 2011. Each year since 2021, he has finished sixth or better on Tour.
Career Return Games Won % – Active Players
| Player | Return Games Won % |
| 1) Novak Djokovic | 31.6% |
| 2) Carlos Alcaraz | 31.1% |
| 3) Jannik Sinner | 28.2% |
| 4) Daniil Medvedev | 27.1% |
| 5) Alex de Minaur | 27% |
So far at this edition of the Australian Open, Djokovic has won 36 per cent of his return games, breaking 18 times from 50 games. Those matches did not come against a player like Sinner, who has led the ATP Tour in percentage of service games won in each of the past two seasons, according to Infosys ATP Stats.
But it is still a positive sign for Djokovic, who has won a higher rate of first-serve return points this fortnight than fellow semi-finalists Sinner (32%), Carlos Alcaraz (35%) and Alexander Zverev (32%).
[NO 1 CLUB]With that said, Djokovic is aware of the challenge in front of him, especially from Sinner and Alcaraz, who have swept the past eight majors.
“Are they better right now than me and all the other guys? Yes, they are. I mean, the quality and the level is amazing. It’s great. It’s phenomenal,” Djokovic said after advancing to the semi-finals. “But does that mean that I walk out with a white flag? No. I’m going to fight until the last shot, until the last point, and do my very best to challenge them.”
Vintage returning will be key to doing just that.
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