Two singles semi-final spots will be decided on Thursday at the Nitto ATP Finals as round-robin play concludes in the Jimmy Connors Group.
A win for Carlos Alcaraz against Lorenzo Musetti would seal first place in the group and ATP Year-End No. 1 presented by PIF honours for the Spaniard, while Alex de Minaur needs a straight-sets win against Taylor Fritz — coupled with an Alcaraz victory — to advance. Alcaraz leads the group after two matches at 2-0, followed by Fritz at 1-1, Musetti at 1-1 and De Minaur at 0-2.
In doubles action, the Peter Fleming Group will also wrap up Thursday. Italians Simone Bolelli and Andrea Vavassori bid to finish a perfect round-robin campaign when they face the 0-2 team of Tim Puetz and Kevin Krawietz, before a win-and-advance showdown that pits top seeds Julian Cash and Lloyd Glasspool against Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos.
[1] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) vs. [9] Lorenzo Musetti (ITA)
Alcaraz is among the most fearless competitors on the ATP Tour, but the bold 22-year-old admitted nerves could factor into this high-stakes match against Musetti. Pitted against the smooth-hitting home favourite and the Italian crowd, Alcaraz is well aware of what is on the line.
A win would send him through to the semi-finals with a perfect 3-0 group record and seal his second year-end No. 1 finish in the PIF ATP Rankings, his first since 2022.
“I will try not to think about it,” Alcaraz said after a 6-7(2), 7-5, 6-3 win against Fritz on Tuesday in Turin. “It’s going to be a really big match for me. I will try not to let the nerves play a bad time in the match. I will think about my goals, about feeling much better than today.”
After winning his opening match at the Nitto ATP Finals for the first time in three tries, beating De Minaur on Sunday, Alcaraz secured a win from a set down for the first time in Turin against Fritz. While he discussed the physical and emotional stresses of that nearly three-hour match, he welcomed the day off ahead of the group finale. Another off day would await before the semi-finals, a luxury not afforded to the players in the Bjorn Borg Group.
Musetti won a brutal three-setter of his own against De Minaur on Tuesday, battling back from a break down in the third set for a 7-5, 3-6, 7-5 result — his first win in his Nitto ATP Finals tournament debut. While he struggled physically at times, he drew on his “big heart and big passion for this game” to fight back, to the delight of the home crowd.
“I am a warrior,” Musetti said. “I have improved a lot on the mental side and I am pushing myself to the limit because I am playing every match against the top players. The next one coming is against Carlos. I know how difficult it is, especially in these conditions. I will try to enjoy and fight like I did today.”
Alcaraz and Musetti have met on some of the game’s biggest stages this season, with Alcaraz sweeping meetings in Monte-Carlo, Rome and Roland Garros and winning the title at all three events. Despite trailing Alcaraz 1-6 in their Lexus ATP Head2Head with six consecutive defeats, the Italian managed to take a set off his rival in two of their three matches this season — all on clay courts.
Both players are clay natives, though Alcaraz’s game has translated to more success on hard courts. While Musetti may have the home-crowd advantage, the quick conditions favour the versatile Alcaraz. But at his best, Musetti is one of the few men on the ATP Tour who can rival Alcaraz for both power and artistry. After the De Minaur thriller, can the Italian paint another masterpiece against the top seed?
<img alt=”Taylor Fritz, Alex de Minaur” style=”width:100%;” src=”/-/media/images/news/2025/11/12/20/23/fritz-de-minaur-turin-rr-preview.jpg” />
[6] Taylor Fritz (USA) vs. [7] Alex de Minaur (AUS)
Despite heartbreaking defeats for each on Tuesday, Fritz and De Minaur are still in with a chance to advance to the Turin semi-finals. Fritz controls his own destiny, with a win enough to reach the Nitto ATP Finals knockout rounds for the third time. De Minaur needs a straight-sets victory to stay in contention, and would then be rooting for Alcaraz to send him through with an evening win over Musetti.
Fritz and De Minaur were both reeling immediately after their Tuesday outings, with the Aussie taking the loss particularly hard.
“If I really want to be serious about taking the next step in my career, these matches, I can’t lose them. I just can’t,” De Minaur said after failing to close out Musetti from 5-3 up in the final set. “I mean, it feels like I’ve lost a lot of them this year. More than anything, it’s getting to a point where mentally it’s killing me.”
Adding to the pain was the fact that De Minaur was denied his first Nitto ATP Finals win in two appearances; he is now 0-5 in Turin between his debut last season and this current campaign. After notching a career-best 55 wins this season, according to the Infosys ATP Win/Loss Index, the Aussie will be eager to add at least one more to his tally.
Fritz had Alcaraz on the ropes in the second set of their meeting, but after missing out on two break points in a marathon fifth game in the second set, he did not earn another break opportunity in the match.
“I had the chances. I had all I could ask for,” he reflected. “I’d say the thing that’s frustrating is most of the opportunities that come to my mind were all on me actually having the ball that I want to really attack on, just not hitting it well enough.”
The American credited his aggressive returning with creating opportunities to attack on return, and he’ll hope to have plenty more chances to dictate against De Minaur. While the Aussie is not as attack-minded as Alcaraz, he knows how to do damage on hard courts: his 42 wins on the surface this season are the most on the ATP Tour.
The pair’s Lexus ATP Head2Head is dead even at 5-5, though they have not played since Fritz swept two late-season meetings in 2024, at the Nitto ATP Finals and Davis Cup.
Doubles Action
The standings in the Peter Fleming Group make for a very straightforward Thursday. At 2-0 with a perfect 4-0 set record, Italians Bolelli and Vavassori have clinched first place in the group — though they will still be playing for significant PIF ATP Doubles Rankings points and prize money when they take on Krawietz and Puetz, whose title defence will end in the round-robin stage.
Cash and Glasspool, who clinched Year-End ATP Doubles No. 1 presented by PIF honours by beating the Germans on Tuesday, take on third seeds Granollers and Zeballos in what effectively amounts to a quarter-final: the winner of that evening showdown will advance to the semi-finals in second place.
[NEWSLETTER FORM]
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