Preview: Will Thiem Loosen Djokovic’s Iron Grip On The Australian Open Title?

Seven-time champion Novak Djokovic has lifted the Australian Open trophy more times than anyone else in history, and he has enjoyed one of his most dominant runs ever to reach the final this year. But Austrian superstar Dominic Thiem has been on a tear in Melbourne, lashing his groundstrokes through anyone standing in his way of a maiden Grand Slam championship. The question is, will Djokovic maintain his iron grip on the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup with another flawless performance, or will Thiem soar to new heights and complete his dream run?

Djokovic and Thiem will meet for the 11th time in their FedEx ATP Head2Head series on Sunday evening on Rod Laver Arena, but the stakes have never been higher. The Serbian, who leads their series 6-4, is trying to extend his record to eight Australian Open crowns, earning his 17th major title to claw closer to Roger Federer (20) and Rafael Nadal’s (19) all-time marks. Although Thiem has won four of their past five clashes, defeating Djokovic in Melbourne is an entirely different challenge.

“I won more of the [most recent] encounters than he did. But I think it doesn’t count so much. It’s absolutely his comfort zone here. He always plays his best tennis in Australia since many, many years. So I’m expecting that as well in the final,” Thiem said. “All I can do is do my best, play great tennis again, and of course take a look at the past matches we had… try to repeat the good stuff that I did there.”

If Djokovic becomes the third man to win at least eight titles at the same Grand Slam, joining Nadal (Roland Garros, 12) and Federer (Wimbledon, 8), he will also regain the No. 1 FedEx ATP Ranking on Monday. But the second seed, who has never lost an Australian Open semi-final or final (15-0), knows he will face one of the most dangerous players on the ATP Tour.

Most Australian Open Titles (All-Time)

Thiem earned his first hard-court victory against Djokovic at last year’s Nitto ATP Finals, where he raised his aggression to incredibly high levels to do something few players are able to, hitting through the Serbian’s defences. “Probably it was maybe the best match I ever played. It was a real classic and epic match,” Thiem said at the time.

Djokovic has followed Thiem’s run in Melbourne, where he is into his maiden Slam final on hard court, and the World No. 2 knows he will have to be at his best in a match that projects to be between one of the most relentless attackers in the game and its best defender.

“Dominic won our last match we played against each other, a close one in London. He played a terrific match against Rafa last night. I watched that. Definitely one of the best players in the world. Deserves to be where he is,” Djokovic said. “It seems like he’s improved his game a lot on hard courts, because his game is more suitable to the slower surfaces.”

Thiem won three of his five titles in 2019 on hard court, including his first ATP Masters 1000 victory at Indian Wells. And if he is to become the second player (Wawrinka, 2014 Australian Open) to beat both Djokovic and Nadal at the same major, the Austrian will need to continue flattening out his shots and stepping into the court, which has helped his improvement on the surface.

“I think I have to keep a good balance. Of course, I have to risk a lot. I have to go for many shots. At the same time, of course, not too much. That’s a very thin line. In the last match against him, hit that line perfectly in London,” Thiem said. “But for sure he’s the favourite. He’s won seven titles here, never lost a final, going for his eighth one. I’m feeling good on the court. I’m playing great tennis. So [I’ll] try to be at my absolute best on Sunday.”

Most Grand Slam Wins Against Djokovic

Djokovic is not in new territory, getting set to play in his 26th Grand Slam final (16-9). But Thiem, a two-time Roland Garros finalist, is trying to make his biggest breakthrough yet. If he springs the upset, he will become the first player born in the 1990s to win a major, and just the second Austrian to do so, joining former World No. 1 Thomas Muster. A victory will also send him to a career-high World No. 3.

“It’s just a matter of one match here and there that can potentially give him a Grand Slam title, that he can actually get in the mix of top three in the world,” Djokovic said. “He definitely has the game. He has the experience now. He has the strength. He has all the means to really be there. He has improved in the past 12 months playing on the hard court without a doubt, and the results are showing that.”

Thiem has proven to play as physical of a game as anyone on the ATP Tour. But Djokovic (12 hours, 29 minutes) has spent nearly six hours less than his opponent (18 hours, 24 minutes) on court throughout the tournament, and he will look to wear the fifth seed down with his elastic defence. Thiem, however, feels ready for the occasion.

“With all the adrenaline and everything, it’s going to be fine. I played two super intense matches against Rafa and now against Sascha. So of course I’m going to feel it, especially tomorrow,” Thiem said. “But [I’m] going to have great treatment, [an] easy hit tomorrow, and then of course try everything to be 100 per cent on Sunday night.”

Most Appearances Before Winning Australian Open Title (Open Era)

Djokovic presents plenty of challenges, no matter what Thiem brings to his table. The 32-year-old shrinks the court, forcing even his most aggressive opponents to go for more than they are comfortable with. In the meantime, he waits for any short balls to pounce and take control of rallies himself. This fortnight, Djokovic has been serving tremendously well, too, winning 82 per cent of his first-serve points.

Djokovic remains undefeated in 2020, after winning all six of his singles matches at the inaugural ATP Cup to work his way into form and gain confidence heading into the Australian Open.

“I’m pleased with the way I’ve been feeling and playing,” Djokovic said. “I thought the ATP Cup went really well for me. I got a lot of hours spent on the court, singles and doubles. It was a great lead-up for the Australian Open. Obviously, I got a lot of positive energy from that competition. I dropped only one set so far up to the final.”

To be the best, you’ve got to beat the best, and in Melbourne, that has long been Djokovic. Will Thiem be up for the challenge?