How Quickly Federer, The Top 10 Race Through Their Service Games
How Quickly Federer, The Top 10 Race Through Their Service Games
The pathway to holding serve for the Top 10 is not as straightforward as you might expect. With each point won or lost in a service game, outcomes vary and the percentage chance of holding serve rises and falls.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the point score in a service game, and the corresponding win percentages, sheds new light into the different ways elite players navigate their way to the finish line of holding their serve.
The data set includes 27,399 service points from the Top 10 on the Monday after Wimbledon from the start of the 2015 season up to and including The Championships in 2018.
Roger Federer and Kevin Anderson lead the Top 10 in winning the opening point of their service games and surging to 15/0. When Federer has gone to 15/0 during the past three and a half years, he has won an astonishing 95.9 per cent (1766/1840) of his service games. In 2018 alone, Federer has dropped serve only nine times (335/344) after leading 15/0.
Best Record Moving to 15/0
|
Position |
Player |
15/0 |
0/15 |
|
1 |
R. Federer |
74.5% |
25.5% |
|
2 |
K. Anderson |
71.5% |
28.5% |
|
T3 |
J. Martin del Potro |
70.4% |
29.6% |
|
T3 |
J. Isner |
70.4% |
29.6% |
|
5 |
N. Djokovic |
69.7% |
30.3% |
|
6 |
M. Cilic |
69.2% |
30.8% |
|
7 |
G. Dimitrov |
68.5% |
31.5% |
|
8 |
A. Zverev |
66.3% |
33.7% |
|
9 |
D. Thiem |
65.8% |
34.2% |
|
10 |
R. Nadal |
65.1% |
34.9% |
|
– |
AVERAGE |
69.1% |
30.9% |
With two points completed, eight of the 10 players are more likely to be sitting at 30/0 than any other scoreline. The two outliers were Alexander Zverev and Dominic Thiem, who were more likely to be at 15/15 than 30/0.
Federer again led the field, getting to 30/0 52.8 per cent of the time, while John Isner rose up the leaderboard to second place at 50.5 per cent. When Isner has led 30/0 on serve in the 2018 season, he has dropped serve only one time, winning 258 of 259 service games.
Best Record Moving to 30/0
|
Position |
Player |
30/0 |
15/15 |
0/30 |
|
1 |
R. Federer |
52.8% |
39.8% |
7.4% |
|
2 |
J. Isner |
50.5% |
41.5% |
8.0% |
|
3 |
K. Anderson |
49.9% |
40.8% |
9.3% |
|
4 |
N. Djokovic |
46.6% |
43.1% |
10.3% |
|
5 |
M. Cilic |
46.6% |
42.9% |
10.5% |
|
6 |
J. Martin del Potro |
45.8% |
44.6% |
9.6% |
|
7 |
G. Dimitrov |
45.6% |
42.1% |
12.3% |
|
8 |
R. Nadal |
44.7% |
44.4% |
10.8% |
|
9 |
D. Thiem |
43.3% |
44.3% |
12.4% |
|
10 |
A. Zverev |
42.6% |
45.2% |
12.1% |
|
– |
AVERAGE |
46.8% |
42.9% |
10.3% |
All players in the Top 10 had a higher percentage chance of being at 30/15 than either 40/0, 15/30 or 0/40 after the first three points of their service game.
Juan Martin del Potro had the highest percentage chance of hitting 30/15, finding himself at that scoreline in about 46 per cent of service games. When the Argentine has led 30/15 since the start of the 2015 season, he has held 93 per cent (708/761) of the time.
Most Likely To Be At 30/15
|
Position |
Player |
30/15 |
|
1 |
J. Martin del Potro |
45.7% |
|
2 |
J. Isner |
45.3% |
|
3 |
A. Zverev |
43.7% |
|
4 |
N. Djokovic |
43.1% |
|
5 |
M. Cilic |
43.1% |
|
6 |
D. Thiem |
43.1% |
|
7 |
R. Nadal |
42.8% |
|
8 |
R. Federer |
42.7% |
|
9 |
K. Anderson |
41.8% |
|
10 |
G. Dimitrov |
41.0% |
|
– |
AVERAGE |
43.1% |
The most likely outcome after four points for the Top 10 is to be at a scoreline of 40/15. Isner was the best performer at this scoreline, navigating his way to 40/15 43 per cent of the time.
The most likely scoreline after five points are played is game over. All of the Top 10 average holding serve more than 50 per cent of the time from this scoreline, with Isner leading the way at a commanding 60.9 per cent.
Holding Serve After Five Points
|
Position |
Player |
Game |
|
1 |
J. Isner |
60.9% |
|
2 |
R. Federer |
60.1% |
|
3 |
K. Anderson |
58.8% |
|
4 |
M. Cilic |
56.6% |
|
5 |
N. Djokovic |
54.7% |
|
6 |
J. Martin del Potro |
53.0% |
|
7 |
R. Nadal |
52.6% |
|
8 |
G. Dimitrov |
52.5% |
|
9 |
D. Thiem |
52.1% |
|
10 |
A. Zverev |
51.4% |
|
– |
AVERAGE |
55.3% |
And this is a look at the average game score of our Top 10 group after five points have been played:
Game = 54.7%
40/30 = 30.7%
30/40 = 14.6%
This fascinating deep dive into point score and win percentages uncovers that a point score in a game for the Top 10 progresses from Love-all to 15/0, 30/0, 30/15, 40/15 and finally game. But it’s not always as smooth sailing as that.