For Federer, 0/40 Is Often Just The Beginning
For Federer, 0/40 Is Often Just The Beginning
It’s time for a “hot take” on point score to see how good your tennis intuition really is. Here’s a fun quiz that is focused on winning the game in two specific serve and return scenarios.
Scenario 1: Serving at 0/40
You are in the deepest serve hole there is. You need at least five points to hold serve, and for the first three points your opponent is salivating over break points. One slip and you are done.
Scenario 2: Returning at 30/15
Now you need only three points to break serve, while the server needs two. You are much closer to the finish line than the first scenario, but you don’t have the benefit of serving.
Have a think about it… Which scenario offers the highest percentage chance of winning the game?
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 from the 2015 season to this week identifies that, on average, they have a higher percentage of winning the game when serving from 0/40. The data set comes from ATP Masters 1000 events and the Nitto ATP Finals.
Current Top 10 Average: Winning The Game
Serving from 0/40 = 19.0% (236/1240).
Breaking from 30/15 = 15.8% (2008/12715)
Eight of the current Top 10 adhered to this pattern, while only No. 9 Daniil Medvedev and No. 10 Fabio Fognini performed better breaking from 30/15.
Current Top 10: Holding from 0/40 – 2015 to Current Week
|
Ranking |
Player |
Holding from 0/40 |
Total 0/40 Points |
Hold % |
|
3 |
R. Federer |
24 |
79 |
30.4% |
|
2 |
R. Nadal |
32 |
138 |
23.2% |
|
4 |
D. Thiem |
38 |
171 |
22.2% |
|
1 |
N. Djokovic |
25 |
119 |
21.0% |
|
7 |
K. Nishikori |
25 |
137 |
18.2% |
|
8 |
K. Khachanov |
16 |
93 |
17.2% |
|
6 |
S. Tsitsipas |
12 |
70 |
17.1% |
|
5 |
A. Zverev |
28 |
177 |
15.8% |
|
10 |
F. Fognini |
25 |
162 |
15.4% |
|
9 |
D. Medvedev |
11 |
94 |
11.7% |
|
– |
TOTAL / AVERAGE |
236 |
1240 |
19.0% |
Roger Federer leads the Top 10 in holding from 0/40 since the beginning of the 2015 season, at 30.4 per cent (24/79). Federer’s gap over second-placed Rafael Nadal is a substantial seven percentage points, or almost a 25 per cent increase. The other two players who were above the Top 10 average of 19 per cent were Dominic Thiem (22.2%) and Novak Djokovic (21%).
Current Top 10: Breaking from 30/15 – 2015 to Current Week
|
Ranking |
Player |
Breaking from 30/15 |
Total 30/15 Points |
Break Percentage |
|
2 |
R. Nadal |
280 |
1417 |
19.8% |
|
1 |
N. Djokovic |
300 |
1538 |
19.5% |
|
7 |
K. Nishikori |
247 |
1429 |
17.3% |
|
3 |
R. Federer |
227 |
1396 |
16.3% |
|
10 |
F. Fognini |
198 |
1231 |
16.1% |
|
5 |
A. Zverev |
226 |
1525 |
14.8% |
|
4 |
D. Thiem |
245 |
1721 |
14.2% |
|
9 |
D. Medvedev |
101 |
779 |
13.0% |
|
6 |
S. Tsitsipas |
85 |
725 |
11.7% |
|
8 |
K. Khachanov |
99 |
954 |
10.4% |
|
– |
TOTAL / AVERAGE |
2008 |
12715 |
15.8% |
Nadal leads the current Top 10 in breaking from a 30/15 scoreline at 19.8 per cent (280/1417). Djokovic is hot on his heels, breaking 19.5 per cent (300/1528) from this specific scoreline. The other three players above the Top 10 average of 15.8 per cent are Kei Nishikori (17.3%), Roger Federer (16.3%) and Fabio Fognini (16.1%).
Your first instinct was probably to go with the 30/15 point score when returning, as it’s a fairly even battleground and you need only three points to break. But this analysis uncovers just how dominant the serve is. The biggest hole serving is actually not as deep as what you must encounter on the returning side of the equation.