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With Delpo Serving At 40/0, It's Game Over

  • Posted: Nov 28, 2018

With Delpo Serving At 40/0, It’s Game Over

Infosys ATP Insights also shows how dominant Del Potro, other members of the Top 10 have been on serve

Serving at 40/0 versus 0/40 could not be more opposite – or the same.

An Infosys ATP Insights deep dive into these two contrasting game scores over the past four seasons for the current Top 10 identifies a massive gap in the expected chance of holding serve, as you would expect. What is also uncovered is a surprising symmetry in where first serves go when a player desperately needs a point (0/40), or has the freedom to surprise the returner with a secondary serve pattern (40/0).

Holding from 40/0 & 0/40
From 2015-2018, the Top 10 have averaged holding serve a dominant 99.4 per cent (9845/9904) of the time when leading 40/0 on serve. Juan Martin del Potro was the most successful holding from 40/0, amazingly dropping serve only one time (594/595), with John Isner and Marin Cilic dropping serve twice, and Roger Federer three times.

When the tables were turned and the Top 10 found themselves down 0/40 attempting to hold, the percentage plummeted all the way down to 20.6 (213/1032). Isner led the Top 10 holding from 0/40 at 27 per cent (20/74).

Current Top 10: Percentage Of Holding From 0/40 and 40/0 – 2015-2018

Ranking

Player

Holding from 40/0

Holding from 0/40

1

N. Djokovic

99.2%

21.4%

2

R. Nadal

99.5%

22.8%

3

R. Federer

99.7%

25.8%

4

A. Zverev

98.8%

15.9%

5

M. Cilic

98.8%

13.4%

6

J. M. Del Potro

99.8%

10.3%

7

K. Anderson

99.5%

26.8%

8

D. Thiem

99.0%

22.7%

9

K. Nishikori

98.8%

21.1%

10

J. Isner

99.8%

27.0%

AVERAGE

99.4%

20.6%

Serve Direction 40/0 & 0/40
You would suspect that serve direction would vary greatly at these two contrasting game scores, as players either elect to go with their favourite location to increase the percentages of winning the point, or surprise to a new location to keep the opponent guessing.

As it turns out, the Top 10 average exactly the same amount of first serves out wide (50 per cent), at the body (eight per cent) and down the centre T (42 per cent) at 40/0 and 0/40.

Current Top 10: Serve Direction at 0/40 and 40/0 – 2015-2018

Ranking

Player

0-40 Wide

0-40 Body

0-40 T

Total

40-0 Wide

40-0 Body

40-0 T

Total

1

N. Djokovic

24

2

24

50

257

25

220

502

2

R. Nadal

39

13

13

65

196

39

156

391

3

R. Federer

14

1

20

35

273

21

173

467

4

A. Zverev

5

3

9

17

55

9

45

109

5

M. Cilic

13

1

11

25

77

22

86

185

6

J. M. Del Potro

18

1

13

32

98

23

51

172

7

K. Anderson

5

1

15

21

113

20

80

213

8

D. Thiem

8

0

13

21

60

7

54

121

9

K. Nishikori

25

5

13

43

81

33

44

158

10

J. Isner

14

0

10

24

131

16

218

365

TOTAL

165

27

141

333

1341

215

1127

2683

PERCENTAGE

50%

8%

42%

100%

50%

8%

42%

100%

There was no set pattern of play on an individual basis, with some players switching locations, and others sticking to what they know best.

For example, Kevin Anderson served 71 per cent (15/21) of his first serves down the T at 0/40, but switched his primary target to out wide when leading 40/0, where he served 57 per cent of first serves. Some players, such as Rafael Nadal, kept the same location where they hit most serves, which was out wide for the Spaniard at both game scores.

It turns out there that 40/0 and 0/40 have a lot more in common than we ever knew.

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Nadal, Cilic Find Their Best Game Under Pressure

  • Posted: Nov 28, 2018

Nadal, Cilic Find Their Best Game Under Pressure

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows how the Spaniard and Croatian buck the trend amongst Top 10 players

Scoreboard pressure affects us all. You would naturally think that a key indicator for players finishing near the top of the year-end ATP Rankings would be their ability to raise their performance in key moments of a match, such as break points.

We talk about players stepping up under pressure, or being clutch in the big moments, but when you study the numbers, in some categories, it just doesn’t wash out how we imagine.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the 2018 year-end Top 10 identifies that their overall first-serve performance actually dropped on break points compared to their season average.

Below are three takeaways from this season’s year-end Top 10, using a data set of 2,255 break points that started with a first serve.

You May Also Like: Tsitsipas Leader Of The Next Gen Pack – By One Point

1. Overall First-Serve Percentage Dropped On Break Point
The Top 10 averaged making 63.5 per cent (31,696/49,880) of their first serves in 2018, but when the pressure elevated on break point, they managed to make only 60.4 per cent (1787/2960) – a 3.2 percentage-point drop.

Only two players from the Top 10 made more first serves on break point than their season average, with Rafael Nadal head and shoulders above his peers. Nadal made 65.8 per cent of his first serves for the season, but that elevated to 69.8 per cent on break point. Marin Cilic was the other player who posted a gain, moving from 59.2 per cent to 59.8 per cent.

2. Ad Court = Majority Of Break Points
More than three out of four break points were contested in the Ad court, with 76.2 per cent (2255) occurring there, and 23.8 percent (705) in the Deuce court. Roger Federer played the highest percentage in the Ad court (80.7%), while Alexander Zverev played the highest percentage in the Deuce court (29.5%).

Nadal led the Top 10 in break points won in the Ad court, at 70.2 per cent (151/215), while John Isner won the most in the Deuce court, at 75.7 per cent (28/37).

3. Deuce / Ad Court Win Percentages Almost The Same
It’s interesting to note that nine of the Top 10 players are right-handed, which may signal a preference to perform better on one side of the court over the other. That simply didn’t happen.

The Top 10 averaged winning 59.9 per cent (422/705) of their break points in the Deuce court, and 60.5 per cent (1365/2255) in the Ad court – just a 0.6 percentage-point difference.

When you see a player elevate his game under pressure, it’s important to understand that it’s is not the norm. It’s actually even more impressive than we ever realised.

2018 Year-End Top 10: First-Serve Performance, Season vs Break Points

Ranking

Player

2018 Break Points: 1st Serves Made

2018 Season: 1st Serves Made

+/- Difference

2

R. Nadal

69.8%

65.8%

4.0

7

M. Cilic

59.8%

59.2%

0.6

1

N. Djokovic

65.8%

66.2%

-0.4

4

A. Zverev

63.4%

64.2%

-0.8

5

J. M. Del Potro

63.8%

65.4%

-1.6

9

K. Nishikori

56.0%

60.3%

-4.3

6

K. Anderson

59.8%

64.6%

-4.8

8

D. Thiem

52.1%

58.7%

-6.6

3

R. Federer

54.2%

62.0%

-7.8

10

J. Isner

61.6%

69.5%

-7.9

AVERAGE

60.4%

63.5%

-3.1

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Best Grand Slam Matches Of 2018: 5 To 3

  • Posted: Nov 28, 2018

Best Grand Slam Matches Of 2018: 5 To 3

ATP World Tour Season In Review: Best Grand Slam Matches

Continuing our Season In Review series, ATPWorldTour.com looks at the third through fifth best Grand Slam matches of the 2018 season.

5. Roger Federer def. Marin Cilic, Australian Open, Final – 28 January 2018 (Match Stats)
In the past, Roger Federer had cried tears of anguish at the Australian Open. Nine years ago, the Swiss couldn’t hold back his emotions after losing an epic five-setter for the championship against Rafael Nadal. This year in Melbourne, Federer’s tears were full of joy.

The 36-year-old star’s back was against the wall when he met 2014 US Open champion Marin Cilic, who found some of his best tennis to overcome a break deficit in the fourth set of their Melbourne clash. Suddenly, the first Grand Slam final of the season came down to a deciding set, and Federer faced two break points in its opening game. Major title No. 20 was slipping away.

But Cilic could not put a forehand return in play on either occasion, and Federer raced away to a 6-2, 6-7(5), 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 victory to make history, joining Roy Emerson and Novak Djokovic with a record six Australian Open titles.

Federer

“All day I was thinking, ‘How would I feel if I won it, how would I feel if I lost it? I’m so close, yet so far.’ I think I was going through the whole match like this,” Federer said. “I’ve had these moments in the past, but maybe never as extreme as tonight. Getting to 20 is obviously very, very special, no doubt.”

Sure, Federer lifted the trophy, his third in five majors. But the fifth-set scoreline could be misleading. There’s no reason to think that if sixth seed Cilic converted on one of those break points in the decider’s opening game, that he would not have been the one to storm ahead to victory. Cilic seemingly grabbed control of the match as he stood on top of the baseline, hammering away at groundstrokes and taking time away from Federer, keeping him from playing aggressively himself.

“I was hitting the ball great. I was just playing phenomenal. Then first game of the fifth set was more or less crucial at the end,” Cilic said. “Just a little bit tougher game, my service game next game. It just ran away from me.”

You May Also Like: Federer Beats Cilic For 20th Major Crown

But it was Federer who came out on top once again, breaking Cilic six times in the match and winning 53 per cent of return points in the fifth set against one of the sport’s biggest servers to triumph. Suddenly, Federer was able to escape the rallies in which he was pulled from side to side by the Croat, using precise serve placement to gain the upper hand. And if you thought winning had gotten old for Federer, his tears during the trophy ceremony said otherwise.

“It’s about living the emotions that I went through tonight again at the trophy ceremony, going through a tough rollercoaster match, five-setter against Cilic, who is a great player, and then getting No. 6 here, No. 20 overall. It’s just a very special moment. Defending my title from last year, the fairytale continues,” Federer said. “It’s definitely a very special moment in my life again.”

4. Marin Cilic def. Alex de Minaur, US Open, Third Round – 1 September 2018 (Match Stats)
If some fans were unfamiliar with #NextGenATP Aussie Alex de Minaur before this year’s US Open, they certainly got to know him well in Flushing Meadows. It took Marin Cilic until 2:22 am — just four minutes shy of the tournament’s latest finish — to beat the 19-year-old 4-6, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-5 in three hours and 59 minutes.

“The atmosphere was very, very intense. Everybody was on their feet. [It was] 2 a.m. in the morning, fifth set, 5-All,” Cilic said. “It doesn’t get better for the crowd.”

The scoreline itself was epic in that Cilic battled back from two sets down for the sixth time — and just the second time in four and a half years. But the decider was what made this tilt stand out; a clash of wills that went deep into the New York night.

Read Match Report

Cilic led 5-2 in the fifth set and held a 0/40 lead on De Minaur’s serve. The Croat had found his game from the baseline, and his firepower was proving too much for the tiring Aussie speedster. At that point, it appeared the teenager’s time on centre stage was near its end.

But De Minaur simply did not go away. He found his very best on Cilic’s match points, chasing down ball after ball, when the 2014 champion didn’t necessarily do anything wrong. De Minaur found his way back on serve, and was on the verge of stunning the Croat. But Cilic finally converted his eighth match point.

“It was just incredible to find the composure, as well, also to stay focused, to stay in the moment, even though I missed so many opportunities there to finish it off, I stayed very focused,” Cilic said. “Obviously that fifth set was, as well, very emotional from both sides. I felt that he was also getting a little bit tired, but still he was pushing and pushing. Big credit to him for staying in there, almost getting to the line. What separated us was a couple points, nothing else.”

De Minaur

It’s not often a star is born in a loss. And De Minaur had already proven himself on the ATP World Tour, reaching championship matches in Sydney and Washington, D.C. But in New York, in the first classic match on the new Louis Armstrong Stadium, De Minaur showed that he is ready and willing to compete against the very best in the sport, no matter what it takes.

“Every time I step out on court, I tell myself that I’m going to play until the last point. He was going to have to beat me. Eventually that’s what he did,” De Minaur said. “But I did everything in my power to try and get back, [I gave] every ounce of energy [I had] to try and push. I managed to come back, but then he was too good at the end.”

Read: The Best ATP World Tour Matches of 2018

3. Rafael Nadal def. Juan Martin del Potro, Wimbledon, Quarter-finals – 11 July 2018 (Match Stats)
It took everything World No. 1 Rafael Nadal had to defeat the resurgent Juan Martin del Potro 7-5, 6-7(7), 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 in an epic battle on Centre Court.

While the tennis was top-notch throughout, Nadal was close to taking a two-set lead. Before that match, the Spaniard was 205-2 when winning the first two sets. So with a 6/3 lead in the second-set tie-break, it appeared the top seed was on the verge of taking an insurmountable lead. But a double fault changed the trajectory of the match, allowing Del Potro right back into the clash.

Read Match Report

“Of course I was worried when I lost the second set. Winning 6/3 in the tie-break, it’s true that he played two great points with his serve, but then I made a very important mistake. That double fault was a big mistake,” Nadal said. “Then the match changed.”

Del Potro would ride his forehand to a two-sets-to-one lead, forcing Nadal to dig deep. And that’s exactly what the Spaniard did.

“He played well. I believe I increased a little bit the level in the fourth and the fifth. But the fifth, he was playing huge. It was so difficult to stop him,” Nadal said. “I am very happy the way that I survived a lot of important points in that fifth set.”

Del Potro, Nadal

Two-time former Wimbledon champion Andy Murray was commentating on the match for the BBC, and even he was in awe of the quality of tennis.

“This fifth set is one of the best sets of tennis I’ve ever seen live,” Murray said.

Del Potro gave himself plenty of chances in the fifth set, earning five break points thanks to his massive forehand and even more courageous effort, showing he was unafraid of diving across the historic grass when needed.

But Nadal was undeterred, throwing in a serve and volley on his first match point, dashing in to put away a backhand volley, turning around and lifting both arms straight in the air after sealing his triumph. On the other side of the court, the Argentine was left lying still, stomach down, on the court after stumbling in his chase after the ball. Exhaustion. Disappointment. All of those feelings hit Del Potro, and understandably so.

Nadal would step over the net and come to embrace the ‘Tower of Tandil’. As is the case in many epic matches, both players deserved to win. But only the Spaniard could move on.

“At the moment I’m feeling sad after almost five hours of running and playing this high level against the No. 1 in the world, and I lost. It’s not good for me. But maybe tomorrow or after tomorrow when I get home and I watch the match or some points again, I will be glad with my level, with my style of game,” Del Potro said. “I think Rafa in the end deserves to win once again.”

Explore the rest of ATPWorldTour.com’s Best of 2018 series

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Andujar's 1,619-Spot Climb Leads Year-End Top 100 Movers

  • Posted: Nov 28, 2018

Andujar’s 1,619-Spot Climb Leads Year-End Top 100 Movers

Spaniard enjoys the biggest jump to the year-end Top 100 of the ATP Rankings

For all players competing on the ATP Challenger Tour, capping a season of tireless hard work with a year-end Top 100 finish is the pinnacle. It marks the culmination of a successful campaign and signals a transition to the ATP World Tour in the coming year.

On Monday, the 2018 year-end ATP Rankings were published following an exciting final few weeks of tennis on the Challenger circuit. And as the season neared its conclusion, there was arguably no storyline more captivating than that of Pablo Andujar.

One year ago, Andujar was sitting at No. 1,701 in the ATP Rankings. The Spanish veteran, a former Top 50 stalwart and three-time ATP World Tour champion, had experienced the greatest of highs in his career. But after enduring three elbow surgeries and years of anguish, he had his doubts that he would ever step on a court again.

That made Andujar’s rise to the year-end Top 100 just that much more special. The 32-year-old capped a resurgent campaign in extraordinary fashion, rising a total of 1,619 spots to No. 82 in the ATP Rankings. It was not only the biggest jump among all players to finish in this year’s Top 100, but the biggest since 2004, when both Tommy Haas (1,702 spots) and Thomas Johansson (1,689 spots) registered astonishing ascents.

“It’s something that I never thought was possible,” Andujar told ATPWorldTour.com. “I am very happy. The truth is that when I started the season I did not know how my elbow would respond, and if I really could return to my top form on the court. This season also has had its adversities, including a new problem with the elbow. They are small things that impact my return at the top level.”

Biggest Movers To Year-End Top 100 (Since 1998)

Player Ranking Jump Year-End Ranking
Tommy Haas (2004) +1,702 No. 17
Thomas Johansson (2004) +1,689 No. 30
Pablo Andujar (2018) +1,619 No. 82
Paul-Henri Mathieu (2012) +1,541 No. 59
Chris Woodruff (1999) +1,342 No. 51

When Andujar kicked off his 2018 campaign, he had not competed on the ATP World Tour or ATP Challenger Tour in nearly 15 months, as he continued to recover from the trio of surgeries. The Spaniard would quickly find his form, slashing his ATP Ranking with back-to-back titles at the inaugural Ferrero Challenger Open in Alicante, Spain, and the ATP World Tour 250 event in Marrakech. His upset of Kyle Edmund in the Marrakech final was his first Top 50 win in three years and saw him soar to No. 153.

Andujar became the first player to win Challenger and tour-level titles in consecutive weeks since David Goffin in 2014. He was also the lowest-ranked champion on the ATP World Tour in 20 years.

Andujar

And he was not done there. Andujar would march to his third title of the year in Florence in October and added a fourth in his season finale in Buenos Aires. He did not drop a set in the Argentine capital, cementing his Top 100 return with authority.

“This year was crazy,” Andujar added. “I started the year without knowing if it was going to be the end of my career, because I did not have an ATP Ranking and I did not know how my elbow would respond. Now I finished the year at No. 82 in the world and I am already direct entry into the Australian Open.”

Ugo Humbert and Christian Garin also made significant gains en route to the year-end Top 100. The #NextGenATP Frenchman Humbert confirmed his spot at a career-high No. 84 after streaking to the title in Andria, Italy, on Sunday. He is the fourth-youngest player to feature in the year-end Top 100, behind only Denis Shapovalov, Alex de Minaur and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Humbert
Ugo Humbert registered the second-biggest jump to the year-end Top 100 in 2018.

Humbert opened his season at No. 374 in the ATP Rankings and would soar 290 spots behind a breakthrough second half. Having won just five main draw matches on the ATP Challenger Tour entering the month of July, he would post a 31-7 mark through the end of the year. That included six final appearances and three titles in Segovia, Ortisei and Andria. Humbert also qualified for his first Grand Slam at the US Open and won his first ATP World Tour match in his hometown of Metz. He would earn nomination for Newcomer of the Year in the ATP World Tour Awards presented by Moët & Chandon.

Garin, meanwhile, rose 220 spots from No. 305 to a career-high No. 85 behind a ruthless run through October. In his final three tournaments of the season, the 22-year-old Chilean completed a perfect 15-0 month with titles in Campinas, Brazil; Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic and Lima, Peru. He joins countryman Nicolas Jarry as players from Chile in the Top 100.

2018 Movers To Year-End Top 100

Player Ranking Jump Year-End Ranking
Pablo Andujar +1,619 No. 82
Ugo Humbert +290 No. 84
Christian Garin +220 No. 85
Alex de Minaur +177 No. 31
Hubert Hurkacz +150 No. 87

In total, 13 players jumped more than 100 spots to the year-end Top 100. In addition to Andujar, Humbert and Garin, #NextGenATP stars De Minaur, Hubert Hurkacz, Reilly Opelka and Jaume Munar also featured in the group, as well as Ilya Ivashka, Bradley Klahn, Guido Andreozzi, Denis Kudla, Ernests Gulbis and Martin Klizan. Twelve of the 13 lifted at least one Challenger trophy in 2018, with Gulbis being the lone exception.

De Minaur, meanwhile, accomplished arguably the most impressive feat of the bunch. The biggest mover to the Top 50 of the ATP Rankings, the Aussie soared 177 spots from No. 208 to No. 31. After opening his season without a Challenger title to his name, he would score his maiden crown on the prestigious lawns of Nottingham and reached a pair of ATP World Tour finals in Sydney and Washington, before finishing runner-up at the Next Gen ATP Finals.

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